India has little choice to import oil from Iran under mounting pressure from the US, therefore it is exploring the crude oil market to replace its Iranian crude loss.
India's overall crude imports grew by nearly 2.7% YoY in 2019 and this growth rate is expected to continue in FY19 as well, as per the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data, Money Control reported.
Before US sanctions on Iranian crude exports, Iran was the third largest oil supplier to India, fulfilling almost 12% of India’s oil requirements. Another largest oil supplier Venezuela is also reeling from sanctions; as a result, India may face a stiff challenge fulfilling its crude oil requirements.
The major advantages of buying Iranian crude is the additional credit period of 90 days that the country gives to India, compared to 30 days by other countries along with cheaper freight due to proximity.
Third party ship tracking data suggests that India reduced its oil imports from Iran in the last quarter of FY19. India imported 350-400 thousand barrels per day in December 2018, which currently stands below 300 thousand barrels per day levels.
Restrictions over relatively cheap Iranian oil could also weaken the rupee further as a higher current account deficit is expected for the first two quarters of FY19-20 (especially if crude continues to rally further).
Other oil producers such as Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates could offset the loss of Iranian oil.
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