OPEC Pact Exit Could Take Months of Negotiations

Exiting the OPEC output reduction deal could take two to five months of negotiations, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday, according to a report by Reuters quoting Interfax.

OPEC members and roughly a dozen non-members agreed to extend 1.8 million bpd worth of cuts through the end of 2018 during a November meeting last year, Oil Price reported. 

That arrangement is due for a review in June, which could create an opportunity for some producers to leave the pact.

“It could take three, four, five months or maybe just two to exit the deal,” Novak said in an interview with Interfax. “Our goal was to take surplus oil away from the market. At the moment, we see that this goal is achieved by two thirds. We cannot rule out that the target level for global oil reserves may be reached by the end of 2018.”

A decision to end the deal at the end of 2018 would necessitate a gradual increase in output to keep prices afloat, the minister explained.

Gazprom Neft—the Russian oil company that has publicly expressed frustration with the OPEC-Russian deal to curtail oil supply—does not rule out that the joint cooperation pact could last until the first half of 2019.

Before the extension of the production cut pact in November last year, Gazprom Neft had been hinting that it was not happy with the deal because it had to sacrifice production growth plans, as Russia and OPEC restrict oil supply to draw down the global overhang.

“Gazprom Neft, as you know, has, in recent years, aggressively expanded production—by 7-9% per year—and, of course, we had planned to continue growing at that same rapid pace. Following the OPEC agreement, instead of growing at 8-9%, we have increased production by just 4.5-5%. Which is, without a doubt, a negative factor for us,” CEO Alexander Dyukov said.