The probability of ramped-up rhetoric between the United States and Iran deteriorating into an open war is very low, a former diplomat said.
Afshar Soleimani, Iran’s former ambassador to Azerbaijan and an expert on regional affairs, also wrote in a recent article published by the Iranian Diplomacy website that the current situation in the region and the world does not favor a new military conflict.
A war of words has escalated since US President Donald Trump took Washington out of an international nuclear deal with Iran in May and reimposed sanctions on its banking and energy sectors.
However, Soleimani argues that there is no reason to believe that America really wants an all-out armed confrontation with Iran despite some analysts interpreting recent moves by the two countries’ military forces as a prelude to war.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps launched war games in the Persian Gulf on Dec. 22, a day after the USS John C. Stennis entered the waterway, ending a long absence of US aircraft carriers in the region.
“There are more reasons suggesting that a military strike against Iran is fairly unlikely,” the expert wrote, citing a number of issues, ranging from domestic problems plaguing the US administration to the problems facing Middle East countries.
The former envoy noted that Washington is not willing to engage militarily with Iran, partly because of the huge cost of US wars abroad that have been of little benefit to America.
“From Trump’s perspective, this money should be used to accelerate US economic growth, domestic production and job creation,” he said.
Soleimani pointed out that the US president’s hands are tied, given the fact that the Democrats have won back control of the House of Representatives and he himself is embroiled in a series of scandals.
Crude Prices
A spike in global oil prices as a result of a military attack against Iran will not serve the interests of most world leaders, including Trump who could be seeking reelection in 2020, the article said.
“Despite US military capabilities, its military decision-makers have concerns about their material and non-material interests being harmed through Iran’s [retaliatory] military actions.”
Soleimani said the US weakened position resulting from its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal—which European powers, Russia and China are trying to save—is another factor that should be taken into consideration when assessing the prospects of war.
"The United Nations Security Council, which has supported the nuclear accord, is against military intervention in Iran," Soleimani said, adding that the tarnished image of Riyadh over the recent murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul, Turkey, has also limited Trump’s ability to flex his muscles against Iran.
The analyst believes that regional countries, particularly the Persian Gulf Arab states, will not welcome a US-led military aggression against the Islamic Republic as they fear it will spill over into their own countries and will undermine regional stability.
On a more optimistic note, Soleimani stated that recent breakthroughs in diplomatic processes aimed at defusing the crises in Yemen and Syria are likely to ease tensions among Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States, who support opposing sides in the two war-torn countries.
