Iran should initiate a plan to gradually step up its nuclear activities to raise the stakes for Europe so that it would agree to pay the price of defying Washington on the 2015 nuclear deal, a senior foreign policy expert said.
“Europe should be brought to a crossroads,” Nasser Hadian also told the Etemad newspaper in a recent interview, in which he discussed his proposal to compel the European signatories to act more seriously to save the agreement.
France, Germany and Britain—European signatories to the deal with Iran that curbed its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief—have scrambled to come up with a mechanism to preserve its economic benefits for Tehran after US President Donald Trump denounced the accord as weak and withdrew from it in May.
But this has proven difficult, with many European firms alarmed at the specter of far-reaching US financial penalties. Iranian officials have said their patience is running out on the European Union’s unfulfilled pledges to keep up oil trade despite renewed US sanctions.
A string of European firms have either quit Iran’s market or scaled back their business in the country. Among large European companies that have suspended plans to invest in Iran is France’s oil major Total.
Heightened Risks
“Iran should increase the risks for Europe. To better understand the situation, we should trace what caused Europe to enter into nuclear talks with Iran in the first place,” Hadian said.
The foreign policy expert added that European powers decided to act as a mediator and bring Tehran and Washington to the negotiation table to help prevent an acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program and a military conflict.
“Today, we have to recreate the same conditions,” he said, adding that Europe will not be ready to pay the economic price of salvaging the nuclear accord unless it is pushed.
Iranian authorities have said that if European countries fail to keep the pact alive, Tehran has several options, including the resumption of its 20% uranium enrichment. The deal allows Iran to continue 3.67% uranium enrichment, far below the roughly 90% threshold of weapons-grade.
“Iran should reduce its commitments under JCPOA in a proper manner in response to the reduction in the commitments of the other side resulting from the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement,” the analyst said, using the abbreviation for the deal’s full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
This could be even helpful to European powers because it will give them leverage to pressure the US administration to engage Iran or face an unfavorable situation, he added.
However, Hadian clarified that his proposal should be implemented only if the country is pushed into a corner.
“In my opinion, Iran should move toward executing a plan to gradually withdraw from the JCPOA only when its survival is at stake. Otherwise, I think the best option is to maintain the current status quo,” he said.
