Iran’s intended contributions to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change contain multiple defects which are likely to have irreversible consequences for the country in the future, an energy expert said.
Iran, along with around 190 other countries, submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to UNFCCC ahead of a universal climate change agreement which was reached at the UN climate conference in Paris in December 2015.
The Paris Agreement is set to take effect in 2020 with the long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels.
INDC is a document that outlines each individual country’s action plan to achieve the worldwide goal.
Iran’s commitments based on its INDC involve the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 4% unconditionally and by 8% on condition of sanctions relief.
Already approved by the Cabinet, the INDC is yet to be reviewed by the Parliament and the top-level vetting body Guardians Council.
The plan has so far sparked mixed response from those who see it as an opportunity to take a step toward low-carbon policies and others who deem it an obstacle in the way of the country’s economic growth.
Saed Sarmadi, an energy expert, has pointed to a number of flaws in the document, warning of possible future repercussions.
Costs
The first problem, according to him, is the cost of fulfilling the commitments.
“In INDC, $52.5 billion have been envisioned for Iran’s contributions which, according to a report by the Department of Environment, would mean a 7.2% reduction in the volume of the country’s economy; this is while none of the designated budget sources appear to be capable of supplying the fund,” he said, Zist Online reported.
The National Environment Fund, energy subsidies, international donations and private sector funds are mentioned as sources of the budget in the document.
Sarmadi explained that the NEF does not have sufficient assets while cutting energy subsidies is not feasible at the moment as it will put greater pressure on the public, who are mostly struggling to earn a decent livelihood.
“[Moreover,] international cooperation has already proved to fail given the banking sanctions … and projects involving emissions reduction do not have enough appeal for the private sector.”
Model of Commitment
The type of commitment is another weakness in the contents of the document.
While countries are not required to make a distinct model of commitment, Iran’s action plan cites clear and measurable objectives that might leave Iran exposed to international accusations in case of failure to meet the targets, the expert noted.
Qatar, for instance, has refused to make any quantitative commitments and Saudi Arabia’s pledged objectives are not assessable.
“Iran’s model of commitment is a business-as-usual type whose scenario is easily interpretable,” he said.
Under the set objectives, Iran needs to manage its CO2 emissions in a way that do not exceed the emission growth rate in the years between 2010 and 2020.
This is while Iran’s economic growth was rather sluggish in those years due to sanctions, and thus the rate was gentle.
This means that keeping with those years’ emission levels would impede further economic growth.
Ambiguous Conditions
Sarmadi cited the conditional section of the INDC as the biggest shortcoming in the document.
Part of the commitments has been undertaken on condition of lifting the economic, technological and financial restrictions as well as the “unjust” sanctions against Iran.
“However, there is no further explanation as to the types of restrictions and sanctions,” he pointed out.
Besides, the term “unjust” is a non-judicial word with no clear definition in the global common law.
In other words, the conditions are vague and open to various interpretations while they could have been more explicit and clear-cut.
“A request for a certain amount out of the $100 billion assistance to developing countries by developed nations would provide greater clarity and would enable Iran to explain its failure to fulfill the pledges in case the sum was not supplied,” he said.
He called for a more prudent consideration of the terms of the document because Iran owns huge gas and oil resources and any restriction on their exploitation would pose significant challenges to the country’s economy.
The UN Climate Change Conference in Bonn, Germany, which took place from April 30 to May 10, 2018, is due to be resumed in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 4-9 to complete negotiations on the Paris Agreement Work Program.
The Bangkok talks come ahead of a December meeting in Katowice, Poland, where government ministers will meet to agree rules for the 2015 Paris climate accord.