The recent conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has highlighted how deeply energy markets and geopolitics have become intertwined. Speaking at a conference on the future of global energy, Abbas Maleki, former deputy foreign minister and faculty member at Sharif University of Technology, said modern conflicts are no longer defined only by military power, but increasingly by the resilience of economies, energy systems and supply chains.
Maleki described the confrontation as “a battle of resilience” in which countries are tested by their ability to absorb financial, logistical and trade pressures. He argued that energy has evolved far beyond a simple economic commodity and now functions as a central pillar of national security and geopolitical influence.
Raising a broader question about the relationship between oil and conflict, Maleki asked whether oil creates wars or wars drive oil prices higher. While he said there is no clear answer, he emphasized that energy prices have effectively become a political barometer for the global economy, reacting immediately to geopolitical tensions and security crises.
According to Maleki, oil prices were trading between $60 and $70 per barrel before the outbreak of the conflict. Following the escalation, Brent crude and US West Texas Intermediate surged toward $120 per barrel, triggering broader shocks across global energy markets.
Natural gas prices also rose sharply. Maleki noted that while Henry Hub gas prices in the United States remained near $3 per million British thermal units, prices in Rotterdam climbed to around $14 and East Asian LNG benchmarks approached $17. He attributed the increases mainly to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions affecting LNG exports from the Persian Gulf.
The impact has been particularly severe in fuel markets. Jet fuel prices in Europe reportedly climbed close to $200 per barrel, increasing pressure on airlines and forcing some carriers to reduce flights. Maleki said the rising costs were directly linked to heightened risks and shipping disruptions in Hormuz.
Fossil Fuel Outlook
Despite global investment in renewable energy, Maleki rejected predictions of a rapid decline in fossil fuels. Citing International Energy Agency projections, he said oil and gas are expected to remain the world’s dominant energy sources at least until 2050. Global oil demand, currently around 100 million barrels per day, could rise to nearly 115 million barrels by mid-century, he added.
He also stressed Iran’s strategic role in global energy markets. Iran holds roughly 150 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves and nearly 50 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, making it one of the world’s largest combined energy holders. Maleki argued that Iran could remain a decisive energy player if it accelerates investment in pipelines, LNG infrastructure and export projects.
A major focus of his remarks was the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products pass every day. He warned that growing insurance risks and shipping restrictions have disrupted trade flows and delayed thousands of vessels around the waterway.
Still, Maleki noted that the global market is better prepared for supply shocks than during the 1973 oil crisis. Strategic reserves released by consuming countries and alternative export pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have helped contain some of the disruption.
Looking ahead, Maleki warned that the world is entering an era of “chronic energy instability,” where geopolitical shocks are becoming a permanent feature of global markets. He added that the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence, data centers and digital industries will further increase electricity and gas demand, reinforcing the strategic importance of reliable energy supplies.
In his view, future global power will depend not only on military strength but also on economic resilience—the ability to keep energy flowing, protect supply chains, and manage crises in an increasingly unstable world.
