Tehran’s capital market opened the new Iranian year on Wednesday (March 25) with a record shift of retail money into low-risk instruments, as ongoing war conditions continue to reshape investor behavior and restrict equity trading.
Trading in shares remains suspended for now due to the conflict, with only fixed-income exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold and silver funds, commodity-based funds, and deposit certificates available for transactions across Tehran’s exchanges.
On the first trading day of the year, fixed-income funds attracted about 3.6 trillion tomans ($25.7 million) of retail inflows, marking the highest daily entry since the outbreak of war on February 28, and since the market’s reopening on March 7. The continued preference for these instruments highlights a strong risk-off sentiment among investors facing heightened uncertainty.
Market analysts say small investors are increasingly reallocating their portfolios toward fixed-income assets until global gold prices stabilize. However, they note that negative price premiums in gold funds could still appeal to long-term investors seeking discounted entry points.
Since the early days of the conflict, regulators have prioritized the reopening of low-risk instruments. Fixed-income securities resumed trading on March 7, and the latest session marked the ninth trading day since the war began.
Cumulative data show that more than 3.2 trillion tomans ($22.9 million) of net retail money has flowed into fixed-income funds over the past nine sessions, reversing earlier outflows and turning the overall balance positive. The trend underscores the growing role of these funds as a safe haven amid elevated geopolitical risks.
Gold Funds Lose Appeal
In contrast, gold-backed ETFs faced significant outflows on Wednesday, with over 700 billion tomans ($5 million) withdrawn by retail investors. The decline coincided with a sharp drop in global gold prices and fluctuations in the domestic foreign exchange market, pushing most gold funds into negative territory of 3–4%.
Gold prices, which hovered near $5,000 per ounce at the end of the previous year, have come under pressure due to rising inflation expectations in the United States and a surge in energy prices, intensifying selling pressure in global markets. A relative increase in the informal exchange rate helped limit further losses in domestic gold funds.
Since the onset of the conflict, gold ETFs—now in their fifth trading session—have recorded cumulative outflows exceeding 4.8 trillion tomans ($34.3 million).
Meanwhile, newly launched silver funds posted marginal inflows on the day, with price declines similar to gold funds. However, their negative premiums remain smaller, suggesting relatively more stable investor expectations compared to gold-linked instruments.
