Iran’s point-to-point inflation climbed to 49.4% in Aban (October 23–November 21), marking a 30-month high and placing the index just 0.6 percentage points below the 50% threshold. The surge extends a five-month climb that began in Tir (June 22–July 22), when inflation stood at 41.1%.
New projections outline three distinct year-end inflation scenarios, and all place point-to-point inflation above 50%.
If the three-month trend from Shahrivar to Aban (August 23–November 21) continues, inflation would reach 54.8%, the upper-risk scenario. Using the eight-month trend from Farvardin to Aban (March 20–November 21) yields 51.7%, while extrapolating the twelve-month trajectory puts the index near 50.5% by year-end.
Even in the most aggressive scenario, the projected rate remains below the historical peak of 55.5% recorded in Farvardin 1401 (March 21–April 20, 2022).
Food prices remain the dominant driver. Bread, grains, and fruits recorded annual increases above 100%, pushing overall food inflation in Aban to 66.2%. With food comprising over 40% of expenditures among the lowest-income deciles, the burden has intensified. Monthly inflation in vegetables and legumes (7.8%), fruits (6.7%), and dairy (6%) outpaced all other categories.
Regional inflation disparities widened: Semnan registered the highest point inflation at 59.3%, while Tehran recorded the lowest at 42.4%. Urban areas saw faster food-price growth due to supply constraints linked to weak rainfall, whereas rural regions experienced higher non-food inflation.
Economists attribute the sustained rise to liquidity expansion, monetized fiscal deficits, and currency-driven expectations.
A modest gasoline price adjustment in Azar (November 22–December 21) is expected to have only temporary effects.
Analysts say easing political uncertainty may help cool expectations, but without fiscal discipline, inflation remains firmly on a 50–55% trajectory heading into year-end.
