In a new sign of growing pressure on global oil markets, Iran’s crude price fell by more than $5 per barrel in October, according to the latest monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The report also shows a slight uptick in OPEC’s overall production, despite Iran’s daily output declining by 66,000 barrels compared to the previous month. OPEC’s November report, based on October production data, reveals that Iran produced 3.2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) in October. This marks a pullback for one of the organization’s key producers, following months of relative stability.
More significantly, the price of Iran’s heavy crude fell by $5, dropping from $69.81 per barrel in September to $64.74 in October 2025. The decline mirrors the broader fall in the OPEC Reference Basket, which slid to $65.20 per barrel, also down by roughly $5 month-on-month.
According to OPEC’s data, the organization’s total output rose modestly by 33,000 barrels per day, reaching 28.4 million bpd in October. Saudi Arabia and Iraq continue to dominate production within the bloc, pumping 10 million bpd and 4 million bpd, respectively. For Iran, the situation is particularly complex. Although its production levels remain above last year’s average of 2.8 million bpd, the latest decline signals potential constraints — whether logistical, technical, or geopolitical — that could limit Tehran’s ability to sustain growth amid sanctions and infrastructure challenges.
The combination of falling prices, stagnant exports, and limited access to global markets places Iran at a crucial economic juncture. A $5-per-barrel decline may appear moderate, but for a country relying heavily on oil revenues amid fiscal pressures, it translates into hundreds of millions of dollars in lost income per month. While OPEC’s overall data paints a picture of gradual recovery in global demand, Iran’s specific figures point to mounting domestic and external constraints. Unless Tehran can attract new technology, investment, and infrastructure upgrades, its capacity to benefit from any future oil price rebound will remain limited.
