Economy

Iran’s Gasoline Demand Outpaces Supply

Iran’s Gasoline Demand Outpaces Supply
Iran’s Gasoline Demand Outpaces Supply

Iran’s average daily gasoline consumption rose to about 133.7 million liters in October 2025 (Mehr 1404), up roughly 8 million liters, or 6.5 percent, from the same month last year (126 million liters/day). According to the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company (NIOPDC), a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Company, daily use peaked at 147.3 million liters on October 5 and fell to around 119.3 million liters on October 25. Although this marks a 5 percent decline from September’s average of 141.7 million liters/day, year-on-year data show that domestic demand remains at record highs.

On the supply side, Iran’s total gasoline output — including refinery and storage contributions — now stands at about 120 million liters/day, following an 8 million liter increase in the second half of the Iranian year 1403. While this reflects notable progress, production still trails consumption. Earlier this year, average daily use stood at around 124 million liters and surged to nearly 144 million liters during the Nowruz travel season, underscoring a persistent supply–demand gap in Iran’s transport fuel market.

For Iran’s economy, these dynamics carry significant implications. Higher consumption places pressure on refining capacity and may increase reliance on imports or strategic withdrawals if production cannot keep pace. At the same time, fuel subsidies and smuggling risk deepen budget strain and undermine the fiscal balance. As Iran moves toward the budget setting season, accurate projections and structural reforms in the gasoline sector will be crucial to align costs, capacity and consumption trajectories.