The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, published in October, paints a far darker picture of global growth than it did a year ago. Whereas forecasts for 2025 were once optimistic, the latest report signals diminishing confidence and anticipates a generalized slowdown. Much of this shift, the IMF argues, stems from the economic policies of Donald Trump’s administration. Rising protectionism, tariff wars and heightened uncertainty have disrupted global supply chains and weakened investment sentiment.
The report projects lower growth for major economies such as the United States and China. Russia faces one of the steepest declines, burdened by prolonged war in Ukraine. In contrast, the eurozone, India and the United Kingdom are expected to see modest improvements. Despite weakening demand and lower oil prices, oil-exporting nations overall still face a relatively encouraging outlook.
Saudi Arabia is a notable outlier, with anticipated growth doubling from 2% to 4%. However, not all oil producers will share in this resilience. For Iran, which continues to struggle with US “maximum pressure” policies, regional security tensions and the risk of reimposed sanctions, the IMF forecasts the sharpest decline among oil exporters. Growth is expected to fall to just 0.6% by the end of the current Iranian year (ending March 2026), compared with 3.7% last year.
Nevertheless, some domestic media have celebrated this slight improvement over April’s initial estimate, interpreting it as evidence of the ineffectiveness of sanctions. This interpretation overlooks several facts. First, the IMF’s data and projections are not updated rapidly enough to reflect recent geopolitical and economic developments. Second, official data from Iran’s Statistical Center confirms that growth turned negative in the spring. Third, the IMF is not the only source for forecasts.
According to projections by the DEN media group’s own Economic Research Center, prepared using internationally recognized modelling methods, Iran’s growth rate is likely to turn negative by the end of autumn. Past forecasts by this center have been broadly comparable to the IMF’s, though typically leaning slightly optimistic. Meanwhile, the Purchasing Managers’ Index has fallen below 50, indicating declining orders and weakening industrial sentiment.
The risk of recession should not be underestimated. While past years saw modest yet positive growth, current conditions—foreign exchange constraints, energy imbalances and falling investment—have pushed industry into a critical state. Without meaningful structural reforms in energy, finance, banking and investment, and without a reset in international relations, Iran’s economy may slip into prolonged stagnation.
Recognizing these realities is essential. Only by confronting the depth of the challenges can policymakers chart a credible path to recovery.
