There are 162,000 hectares of dysfunctional urban areas, including worn-out, historical and informal settlements, in Iran, where more than 19.5 million people are living, says Mohammad Ayeeni, managing director of the Urban Regeneration Company of Iran.
“There are more than 59,000 hectares of informal settlements in the cities, which host 6.2 million people. In general, 18% of the population of Iranian cities are living in worn-out areas, 11% in informal settlements and 4% in historical areas,” he was quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.
The disproportionate distribution of resources and infrastructures, urban poverty and migration, climate change and natural disasters [floods, earthquakes, dust storms], and failure to support low-income groups in urban and regional development plans as well as a lack of proper planning in the housing sector are to blame for the formation of informal settlements, he added.
Rise in Urban Marginalized Population Alarming
Population growth and migration to urban areas, along with the rise in rent levels and home prices, have driven many people to suburban areas and consequently contributed to the increase in social harms.
In the fiscal 2020-21, as many as 90,000 people were added to the population of those living in the suburban areas of metropolises and large cities. The total population of new towns exceeded 1 million, which was 2.2 times more than the annual average population of migrants over the last two decades, the Persian daily Arman-e Melli reported.
Urban marginalization has deprived thousands, if not millions, of basic amenities; absence of security has led to a rise in crimes in these areas. The phenomenon is not restricted to Tehran. Marginalization is on the rise in smaller cities like Kurdestan and big cities such as Mashhad.
Farshad Momeni, an economist and university professor, believes that the debate on the quality of growth has been derailed and people are being desensitized about poverty-generating policies.
“But seriously, shouldn’t you be sensitive about the fact that the number of people living in suburban areas now constitutes one-fourth of the country’s population?” he asks.
In other words, as many as 20 million people have been driven out of cities to suburban areas with the least urban amenities.
Hamidreza Saremi, an official with Tehran Municipality, says there is a need for 150,000 new homes in the capital city.
“Eighty percent of the residents of Tehran are living below housing poverty line. Tehran accounts for 11% of Iran’s population. According to international indicators, only Damascus is in a situation worse than Tehran, while the law requires the municipality to plan and improve housing. A total of 43% of Tehran residents are tenants compared with 25% in the country’s population,” he said.
Asghar Mohajeri, sociologist, says, “Urban marginalization in our country is very alarming. Urban officials admit that 24 million people are living in suburbs. From a social perspective, we have to put that number at 40 million.”
He noted that urban marginalization is synonymous with people deprived of living standards, including adequate housing and accommodation.
“People living on rooftops and stairwells; living in underground canals or even in tents along highways are other forms of informal settlements you can see in Chabahar and Bandar Abbas. Urban marginalization is a serious issue threatening more than half of the country’s population today. Studies show urban marginalization is the root cause of social harms,” he said.
Tehran Facing Super Challenges
The deputy head of Tehran's Plan and Budget Organization warned last year about the super challenges facing Tehran amid its growing population.
Shahram Edalati added that while Tehran Province has a 0.8% share in Iran’s area, i.e., less than 1%, its population has reached 16.6 million people and it accounts for 25% of the country's gross domestic product.
These figures, he explained, show Tehran can be both the biggest opportunity and threat to the development of the country.
Referring to the rising rate of urbanization in Iran, Edalati said five decades ago, 70% of the country's population were rural, but today, after half a century, 75% of the population have become urban.
The official also warned against the growing number of unofficial settlements as a result of increasing urbanization.
"Today, the population of the elderly people in Tehran is increasing, but at the same time the population in the suburbs of Tehran is getting younger due to the significant migration to these areas. Most of these people are single men who migrated to these areas for work,” he added.
Tehran’s suburban population is more than 5.5 million, of whom about 4 million are living in unofficial settlements.
Edalati noted that due to the aging population of Tehran, one of the most lucrative occupations will be caring for the elderly in nursing homes in the future.
Asked about the number of people living in unofficial settlements inside the city of Tehran, he said 1.5 million people are living in unofficial settlements in Tehran’s urban areas.
“Out of the population of 800,000 people in the villages of Tehran Province, 300,000 are living in homes highly vulnerable to earthquakes. About 350,000 people are considered neither urban nor rural population, some of whom are living in tents,” he said, stressing that the only way to solve the housing problem in Tehran Province is urban regeneration.
SCI’s Population Estimates at County Level
The Statistical Center of Iran has published for the first time the findings of its latest estimate on population at the county level pertaining to the fiscal 2021-22.
The population of 31 provinces and 469 counties has been calculated separately for men and women, as well as in urban and rural areas, the SCI reported.
Forty new counties have been added to the list of Iranian counties after the National Population and Housing Census in the year ending March 2017.
The total population of the country in the fiscal 2021-22 was estimated at about 84.55 million: 42.46 million men and 41.58 million women.
A total of 63.87 million people lived in urban areas and 20.17 million people lived in rural areas.
The total number of households in the country was 26.38 million, of whom 20.37 million lived in urban and 6 million lived in rural areas.
Tehran with 9.03 million, Mashhad with 3.61 million and Isfahan with 2.17 million were the most populous Iranian counties while Abu Musa in Hormozgan Province with 8,000, Chovar in Ilam with 9,000 and Aradan in Semnan with 12,000 people were the least populous counties of Iran.
Demographic Outlook
The SCI estimates that the age of over 26% of Iran’s population will be 60 or older by the fiscal 2051-52.
The population of this age group accounted for 9.3% of the total population in the fiscal 2016-17.
SCI also estimates that about 19% of Iran’s total population will be 65 years or older by the fiscal 2051-52.
In the fiscal 1956-57, the elderly population of Iran (those aged 65 years or older) stood at 4% of the total population.
The share of the elderly from the total population started decreasing in the fiscal 1966-67 until 1996-97 from 3.8% to 3.1% and started increasing from 1996-97 until 2016-17 from 4.4% to 6.1%.
The SCI data also show that the population of elderly women is growing at a faster pace compared with their male peers.
The population of elderly men and women stood at 400,000 each in the fiscal 1956-57. It stood at 500,000 for each in the fiscal 1966-67 and 600,000 in 1976-77. In the fiscal 1986-87, the elderly male population stood at 800,000 people and that of elderly women hit 700,000 people. The population of elderly women stood at 1.2 million in the fiscal 1996-97, while that of elderly men hit 1.4 million people. In the fiscal 2006-07, the elderly male population stood at 1.9 million and elderly women population hit 1.7 million. The population for elderly men and women stood at 2.2 million each in the fiscal 2011-12.
The population of elderly women started to outpace men’s since the fiscal 2016-17 and stood at 2.5 million, while the elderly male population stood at 2.4 million people.
It is estimated that the population of elderly women will stand at 10.1 million in the fiscal 2051-52 and the elderly male population will reach 8.9 million.
According to the latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran, in the fiscal 2016-17, Iran's population stood at 79,926,270 – 9,430,488 more than in the fiscal 2006-07.
SCI conducts population census every 10 years.
Tehran Province's population is expected to reach 20 million in five years. Tehran is the 25th most populous city in the world and its population is increasing every year.
“Between 200,000 and 250,000 people are added to Tehran's population each year,” Masoud Shafiei, the head of the Management and Planning Organization of Tehran Province, was quoted as saying by ILNA.
The growth in population includes immigrants from other cities and villages as well as foreign countries.
