The state-run Iran Power Generation, Distribution and Transmission Company (Tavanir) says the national grid cannot take a load higher than 60 gigawatts.
According to Bargh News website, if power demand (in the summertime) surpasses 59,500 megawatts, load shedding and outages will be inevitable.
Referring to the high and rising consumption in previous years, the website said in 2016 maximum power load was 53 GW and a year later soared to 57 GW.
Peak consumption reduced by 1 GW in 2018, when the maximum registered power load was 56,000 MW, but again a year later (2019), peak demand rose by 1.5 GW and network load hit a new record high of 57,500 MW.
“If the peak demand exceeds 60 GW, power cuts will become a compulsion,” the top utility company warned.
Financial Tribune contacted the Tehran Regional Electricity Company Sunday afternoon following power failures in some northwestern areas of the capital as the mercury shot up above 35 degrees centigrade.
It was told it was due to “heavy load” and power would be “back soon.” Electricity was restored after a little less than two hours.
The number of electricity meters in Iran (37 million) increases by 1 million per year. As and when average temperature goes up by 1 degree Celsius, power consumption jumps by almost 1,500 MW.
The mercury in Tehran, a city that has a relatively moderate climate compared to the southern regions, has been bordering on 35 degrees Celsius for the past several days and peak demand is around 51 MW.
Put simply, there is a direct link between the rise in temperature and peak demand consumption. When the temperature reaches 36, 37, 38, 39 and 40 degrees Celsius, network load approaches 52.5 GW, 54 GW, 55.5 GW, 57 GW and 59.5 GW, respectively.
Up until 2018 growth in power consumption was 6%. But due to frugal consumption in different sectors, especially in industries and farming, growth in 2019 was barely 2%.
Last week (on May 27 when the temperature was 35 degrees Celsius), consumption exceeded 50,500 megawatts, up 6% from the day before and about 3,000 MW higher than the same day of last year.
The mercury is forecast to reach over 37 degrees Celsius in the next few days due to which peak demand is expected to hit 54 GW.
“If this high consumption pattern continues, the national power grid will not be able to take the load. The shortfall will have to be compensated by load shedding, affecting industries and households,” Tavanir said.
Power customers may experience load shedding when a utility provider lowers or stops electricity distribution across the coverage area for a short period of time; this type of load shedding is commonly referred to as a rolling blackout.
Tavanir has routinely warned homes and offices to rethink their unacceptably high consumption. Failing to conserve electricity means blackouts in many regions across the country.
Over 3,000 megawatts has been added to installed power capacity since 2019, and hydroelectric power plants are in good condition due to the heavy rains in the past months. However, none of this is apparently enough to make up for the ever-increasing power consumption in summer.
Working hours may change like previous years during the hot season to avoid potential power outages. Changing work hours helped with load management in the provincial capitals, big cities and towns last year. The initiative reduced power consumption by as much as 500 megawatts last summer.
If necessary, supplies (1,300 MW) to Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan will be reduced or halted, Tavanir said, adding that meeting domestic requirements remains a priority.
