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Taiwan Expects GDP to Fall

CIER has raised its 2017 forecast for GDP growth to 2.53%.CIER has raised its 2017 forecast for GDP growth to 2.53%.

The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research forecast on Tuesday said  Taiwan’s gross domestic product will grow 2.27% in 2018 after a projected 2.53% year-on-year increase in 2017.

At a news conference, CIER, one of Taiwan’s leading think tanks, said it has raised its forecast for GDP growth in 2017 to 2.53% from an earlier forecast of 2.18% made in October. It also raised the estimate for 2018 economic growth from 2.20% to 2.27%, CNA reported.

CIER president Wu Chung-shu said the slightly lower GDP growth expected for 2018 largely reflects a relatively high comparison base in 2017. However, growth is expected to top 2% for both years on the back of solid global demand at a time when the global economy remains on the way to recovery.

According to CIER, Taiwan’s GDP is expected to grow 2.69% in the first quarter of 2018, 2.39% in the second quarter, 2% in the third quarter and 2.02% in the fourth quarter. The CEIR forecast is more cautious than the government, which expects Taiwan’s GDP growth to hit 2.58% in 2017 and 2.29% in 2018.

After inflationary adjustments, Taiwan’s exports in merchandise and services for 2018 are expected to grow 3.47% from a year earlier, CEIR said, while imports in merchandise and services are expected to grow 3.51% in real terms.

The projected growth in imports and exports in 2018 is lower than the 5.34% and 6.86%, respectively, forecast for 2017, CIER data showed.

In 2018, private investment is expected to rise 1.70% from a year earlier, reversing an estimated 0.36% fall in 2017, while capital formation is expected to grow 2.79% next year, up from an expected 0.56% increase this year, CIER said.

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