Global Investor Sentiment Improves, Except in US

Investor sentiment towards most geographic regions improved in September, although according to the results of one widely-followed survey there is some skepticism surrounding the situation in the US.

"Except for the USA all the countries and regions surveyed convey a robust economic impression. Even Japan convinces with strong position values," research institute Sentix said in a statement, Digitallook.com reported.

Sentix's headline index for the euruzone rose from 27.7 in August to 28.2 for September, nearly recovering to its July level of 28.3.

According to the think-tank, the single currency bloc had successfully passed its first "light test", with the economy not impacted by the car crisis in Germany nor the weak figures on the US economy.

In parallel, an index for the US jumped from 14.1 to 17.1, but remained below April's reading of 26.7. However, investors were skeptical on America, the institute said.

"Decisive for the next few weeks is probably whether Trump can avoid a shutdown of the US government and implement its tax plans at least partially," Sentix said.

The index for Japan was also higher, rising from 13.7 to 17.6 and up from 14.1 in April. "Notwithstanding the saber rattling on the Korean peninsula, the Japanese economy continues to improve bit by bit. The current situation rating is the highest since July 2007. Expectations remain positive, but at a low level."

Meanwhile, in Germany, the growth dynamics were flattening but economic activity was described as still at a high level.

In Euroland

The headline index for the eurozone's largest economy edged up from 33.2 to 34.0.

Stock market declines and the risks of a rapidly strengthening currency have yet to worry investors in the eurozone, with a measure of investor confidence unexpectedly climbing at the start of September.

Sentix’s measure of eurozone investor confidence rose from 27.7 to 28.2, just shy of the 10-year high it hit in June and defying expectations of a slight decline.

Views of the current economic situation slipped, but this was offset by an upswing in expectations for the months ahead.

The figures follow a series of resilient confidence data over the last few weeks, which suggest the eurozone has so far taken the stronger currency in its stride.

Manfird Huebner, Sentix managing director, said: Mario Draghi should be pleased: the euroland economy has passed its first light test. August’s uncertainty, caused by the car crisis in Germany and weak US economic data, has not affected the euroland economy. With a current situation index of +39.75 and an expectation component of +17.25, the euroland economy is in good shape for autumn.

Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics described the result as “a welcome sign of resilience”, but remained cautious that confidence could wane soon: We have to assume that risks to equities and sentiment are tilted to the downside in coming months, given the likelihood that a stronger euro dents earnings in Q3, not to mention the increasingly worrying situation in southeast Asia.

Pound Slips Towards Parity With Euro

Speculation that the pound is set to reach parity with the euro is rife after construction purchasing managers index data highlights Brexit’s negative impact on the economy.

Following a week of heightened tensions over the North Korean missile aggression and stalled Brexit negotiations, sterling took yet another battering at the start of the month as Construction PMI data reveals weak economic growth and a new BBC survey finds an interest rate rise from the Bank of England is unlikely until 2019.

Commenting on the results Paresh Davdra, CEO and Co-Founder of RationalFX, said: “The pound has fallen against its peers as PMI figures revealed today that the UK’s construction growth has fallen to its lowest level in a year.

“Construction PMI data released Monday has revealed a minute increase in construction activity at 51.1, alarmingly close to the stagnant 50 point mark. The pound became subdued against the dollar as a result, as analysts view the figures as a sign of Brexit’s negative impact on the economy with businesses in the building sector spending less whilst new construction investment falls."