The US economy is picking up speed. That’s the view of a panel of business economists, whose latest growth forecast calls for a 3.1 percent advance in US gross domestic product in 2015 — up from a 2.2 percent expansion this year.
And the improved job market will continue to push the jobless rate down to 5.4 percent by the end of next year, according to the latest forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), CNBC said.
The groups’ upbeat outlook was bolstered Friday by the government’s latest employment data, which showed a surge in employment in November, when nonfarm payrolls jumped by 321,000. The report also boosted the government’s previous estimates for job gains in September and October.
Those numbers were reported after the panel of business economists — who advise large US banks and corporations — were surveyed in mid-November.
Despite the pickup in job growth and overall output, the panel expects inflation will remain tame next year, in part because of the recent slide in oil prices.
While the pace of the US economy’s growth is expected to pick up, the economists are less upbeat about the global economy.
Global growth is seen rising 3.4 percent next year, with China slowing to a 7 percent annual pace, Europe expanding by 1.2 percent and Japan eking out 1 percent gain in GDP.
More than half think the world’s developed economies have hit a prolonged period of slower growth — or what they call “secular stagnation.” Nearly half of those who think this is happening blame the ongoing debt overhang from the Great Recession. Another 20 percent cited tight government spending.
Other reasons cited were a slowdown in technological innovation (8 percent), demographic changes (8 percent), consumer retrenchment following the Great Recession (4 percent) and excess global production capacity (4 percent).
However, 30 percent don’t believe growth in the developed world is in a prolonged slowdown.
The group has also pushed back its forecast for a rise in US interest rates. Most believe the Federal Reserve will begin boosting rates sometime in the middle of next year, but nearly half now think that won’t happen until the third quarter of 2015.
