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The US economy 2017 must confront the disruption of the Trump administration, for better or worse.
The US economy 2017 must confront the disruption of the Trump administration, for better or worse.

Economic Risks Mounting in US

Every 1% impact on business travel spending annually, the US gains or loses 71,000 jobs, nearly $5 billion in GDP, $3 billion in wages and $1.2 billion in tax collections

Economic Risks Mounting in US

Peak US travel industry body the GBTA has revealed the impact (President Donald) Trump’s travel ban has already had on the country’s business travel sector.
In a comment piece written by Michael W. McCormick, GBTA executive director and COO, it was revealed that in the week following the initial ban, approximately $185 million in business travel bookings were lost as the uncertainty surrounding travel in general had a rippling effect on traveler confidence, Travel Media reported.
“Given that for every 1% impact on business travel spending annually, the United States gains or loses 71,000 jobs, nearly $5 billion in GDP, $3 billion in wages and $1.2 billion in tax collections, a loss in business travel also leaves a lasting negative impact on our economy,” he wrote.
“The current state of uncertainty over the travel ban could cause a similar impact on business travel. The Trump administration has announced they are working on a new executive order that is expected to be released soon. It is still unclear if Trump will rescind the original order, which is currently on hold after the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court’s injunction,” he continued.
“International outbound business travel was already identified as a weak point for the US business travel market in our outlook before news of the travel ban was released. The biggest driver of our economic recovery of the past seven years from the most recent downturn was international outbound travel as US businesses found top line growth and business opportunity from new markets all over the world. It seems clear that this is an area presidential policies should work to bolster rather than diminish.
“Cancelled business trips are typically not rescheduled, so every business trip cancelled results in permanently lost travel industry revenues, decreased future employment rates and lost economic benefit to our country.”

  A Tidal Wave
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has warned that a tidal wave of US political and economic risks are building against Trump’s agenda, CNBC commented.
The policy halo effect that provided ballast to the stock market and fueled investor optimism is already being dimmed by political realities, CNBC reported Goldman Sachs as warning. Such a backlash may have negative implications for economic growth.
“In a note to clients on Friday, the investment bank noted Trump’s agenda was already running into bipartisan political resistance, with doubts growing about potential tax reform and a repeal of the Affordable Care Act, among other marquee Trump administration initiatives.”
Just two weeks into his tenure, “risks are less positively tilted than they appeared shortly after the election,” Goldman wrote. Growing resistance to Trump’s executive orders on immigration and financial reform has galvanized opposition while dividing members of the president’s own Republican Party, the agency explained.
The balance of risks “are less positively tilted than they appeared shortly after the election,” Goldman said, which may blunt the force of future growth.

  Chronic Weaknesses
The economy of the US is the largest in the world by value. Its gross domestic product for 2016 is estimated at more than $18 billion in terms of purchasing power. But the US economic outlook for 2017 could be affected by chronic weaknesses. With Donald Trump as president, these weaknesses are given more weight, causing adverse effects.
Assessing the US economic outlook for 2017 presents more complexities than usual. The US economy 2017 must confront the disruption of the Trump administration, for better or worse. Ordinarily, US economy forecasts evaluate the performance of the most important American sources of production.
The leading sectors are the service sector (banking, insurance, transportation, commerce, publishing, entertainment) and industry (oil, arms, consumer products, aerospace, automotive, electronics, information technology, telematics). Also important is the weight of the primary sector, especially in soybean and cereal production (corn, wheat) and livestock, despite the small number of employees.
But the increasingly persistent role of the finance sector adds considerable risks. It makes an ever more significant part of the US economy growth rate susceptible to unpredictable risks, such as “black swan” events. If the US has made a huge contribution to global economic growth, it is because of its diversity.

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