China Vows to Contain Debt Levels as Inflation Heats Up
China vowed on Tuesday to contain high company debt levels and further cut excess coal and steel capacity, as Beijing attempts to maintain solid and more balanced economic growth while avoiding destabilizing asset bubbles.
The world’s second-largest economy likely grew around 6.7% last year—roughly in the middle of the government’s target range—but it faces increasing uncertainties in 2017, the head of the country’s state planning agency told a news briefing, Reuters reported.
Global investors are buzzing over whether China’s leaders will be willing to accept more modest growth this year, amid worries about the risks from years of debt-fuelled stimulus driven by the political obsession with meeting official targets.
China’s credit growth has been “very fast” by global standards, and without a comprehensive strategy to tackle the debt overhang there is a growing risk it will have a banking crisis or sharply slower growth or both, the International Monetary Fund said in October.
“Although the domestic economy is stable and improving, it still faces contradictions and problems,” said Xu Shaoshi, the top official at the National Development and Reform Commission. “We have the confidence, conditions and ability to ensure the economy operates within a reasonable range.”
Xu said China will not allow debt of non-financial firms to rise beyond current levels, and will step up efforts to encourage companies to restructure their debts. China’s corporate debt has soared to 169% of gross domestic product.
China’s leaders are likely to accept growth this year of around 6.5%, policy insiders say. That would give the government more room in theory to focus on tackling the nation’s debt pile, and on tamping down speculation that was seen last year in the housing, commodities and debt markets.
A Stunning Turnaround
After a rough start to 2016, China’s economy performed better than many economists had expected as higher government infrastructure spending, a housing rally and record lending by state banks fuelled a construction boom.
Producer prices, in particular, saw a stunning turnaround, emerging in September from nearly five years of deflation. That helped put the long ailing manufacturing sector on steadier footing, boosting profits and giving factories more cash flow to whittle down a mountain of debt.
Data on Tuesday showed producer prices continued to rise as 2016 drew to a close, with producer inflation surging 5.5% in December year-on-year, the fastest in more than five years, as the prices of coal and building materials soared.
Cuts in industrial capacity, along with a rebound in demand, have helped fuel the spike in prices.
But some analysts worry the strong gains may also be fueled by growing speculation in commodities futures markets, adding to the broader risk of bubbles in China’s economy even as leaders attempt to control explosive debt growth.
“I don’t think there’s an inflation issue in China, it’s an asset bubble,” said Commerzbank senior emerging market economist Zhou Hao in Singapore.
While the NDRC’s Xu said on Tuesday that China will put more pressure on coal and steel firms to reduce overcapacity this year, analysts at ANZ predict higher prices and fatter profits may thwart those efforts.
“Producers are tempted to fire their engines again in the face of rising prices. The government will not fully welcome the rapid recovery of the PPI,” said ANZ economists David Qu and Raymond Yeung in a note.
Higher Interest Rates?
For the first time in nearly five years, economists at HSBC have raised their forecast for global growth and inflation, encouraging by robust manufacturing activity, a resilient China and above all the fiscal boost expected to come in the United States under incoming president Donald Trump.
Hopes of stronger spending under Trump are sparking expectations of stronger US economic growth and inflation with more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.
A sharp jump in borrowing costs would heighten the risk of loan defaults, though China’s sustained producer price jump has not yet started filtering into rising consumer prices, suggesting its central bank will not be under pressure to tighten monetary policy at an earlier date, analysts say.