World Economy

Ireland Jobless Rate to Fall

Ireland Jobless Rate to FallIreland Jobless Rate to Fall

Irish Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin was released Wednesday morning with wide ranging reporting discussing Irish mortgage figures, unemployment, Brexit, ‘on-shoring’ and balancing sheet reclassification.

The bank forecasts an improving labor market, indicating that the Irish unemployment rate will continue its downward projection from 11.1% in 2014, to 9.4% currently, falling further to reach 7.9% in 2016 and 7.2% in 2017, Business World reported.

The gross domestic product growth of 4.9% is forecast for 2016, a marginal downward revision of 0.2% from the previous projection. The forecast for GDP growth in 2017 is 3.6%, down 0.6% from the previous forecast.

Mortgage arrears has been a commanding topic since the boom, the report indicates that on an aggregate level, arrears have been declining since mid-2013, “overall about 1 in 6 mortgage accounts has received some form of restructuring arrangement. The majority (85%) of these restructured accounts are meeting the terms of their new arrangement.”

The Central Bank take a long term view on euro to sterling, forecasting that the EUR/GBP exchange rate will settle back to 84c across 2016 and 2017 from 73c this June.

In terms of Brexit the report states “Assessing the outlook for the economy is further complicated by the outcome of the Brexit referendum in the UK. The close relationship between the Irish and UK economies creates a particular exposure for the Irish economy from Brexit. Both in the short-term and in the longer-term, the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland is set to be negative and material.”