41061
India Losing Momentum
World Economy

India Losing Momentum

Indian economy has been losing momentum since the middle of financial year 2014-15, a new study says, citing corporate results and 'real economic indicators', while questioning the 'counter-intuitive' official GDP data.
It also said that a region-wise analysis shows that the southern part of the country has been witnessing faster economic growth than the north, in contrast to the trend shown by the official data, PTI reported.
However, it is Middle India that is growing the fastest, as per the Regional Keqiang Index developed by leading financial services and investment research firm Ambit Capital. According to Central Statistics Office data, GDP growth 'accelerated' in fiscal 2015-16 as against 2014-15.
The Ambit Capital report noted that "corporate results as well as the range of alternative tools we have developed to track the health of the real economy, however, suggest that the Indian economy has been losing momentum since mid-FY15".
It further added that "for 2015-16, the CSO's data shows that GDP growth was recorded at 7.6%, implying that GDP growth 'accelerated' from 7.2% in 2014-15.
However, this once again makes little sense as 9 of 14 real economy indicators (supplied by industrial bodies/regulators as against the government) decelerated in fiscal 2015-16".
The report termed the state level GDP data as "dodgy", and said that it's "annual-RKI suggests that South India has been outperforming the North on the economic growth front", and going by the quarterly-RKI, "Middle India has been the strongest performer".
The India Keqiang Index comprises 'real' economy indicators. IKI consists of four indicators, namely motor vehicle sales, capital goods imports, power demand, and cargo handled at airports. This indicator confirms the view that the Indian economy is undergoing a pronounced slowdown, the report said.
"If the new GDP series did not exist and if we use our IKI to estimate the pace of growth in the real economy as per the old GDP series, our GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2015-16 would be 6.2% (as against 7.7% on the new GDP series) and for the third quarter of 2015-16 it would be 5.4% (as against 7.3% on the new series)," it added.

Short URL : http://goo.gl/lRvEDM
  1. http://goo.gl/vok3NF
  • http://goo.gl/JtLRvb
  • http://goo.gl/mdwvII
  • http://goo.gl/lVtP1C
  • http://goo.gl/Cgqsfr

You can also read ...

South Korea Economy Facing Downside Risks
The South Korean economy will face some downside risks going...
Marlo Draghi (L) and Janet Yellen at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on January 7.
Stock markets have spent the year rising on bets of a...
The authorities—the government, the central bank, supported by the state-owned banks—are now pulling all levers  to keep this mounting debt under control.
Corporate debt in China has soared to $18 trillion, or 169% of...
Diesel Emissions Scandal a Risk to German Economy
The emissions scandal ensnaring German carmakers is a risk to...
Deals outside Turkey are much cheaper and better  than Turkish opportunities.
Robert Yuksel Yildirim had barely been at the family’s...
The London Metal Exchange
World stocks struggled at a 5-1/2-week low on Monday, though...
Madura Says Will Tackle Inflation
The Venezuelan government’s toughest challenge is fighting...
Thai Q2 GDP Surprises With 3.7% Rise
Thailand’s economy continued its recovery in the second...

Trending

Googleplus