While some emerging markets are facing sharp declines in growth and investment, Turkey is holding out, experts said, remaining both a growing economy, and a significant presence in global politics, they told Anadolu Agency on Friday.
“The Turkish economy should see growth in the third quarter, and will substantially recover in the fourth quarter,” forecast Bora Tamer Yilmaz, an economist with Ziraat Securities. Growth is forecast at 3% for the quarter by a number of economists.
The recovery in Europe will contribute significantly to Turkish growth this year, Standard & Poors said in a report published on Oct. 1.
Some emerging markets are facing “their fifth consecutive year of declining rates of growth”, warned Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund in a speech on Thursday.
“This outlook is heavily affected by major economic transitions–namely, China’s transition to a new growth model and the normalization of US monetary policy–that are creating global ripple effects or spillovers and spillbacks,” Lagarde said.
The Institute for International Finance has said that, for the first time in nearly 30 years, more money is leaving emerging markets than entering them. The institute projected net outflows of $541 billion in 2015, according to a note published on Oct. 1 on its website.
Brazil and Russia are especially affected, and, indeed, are already in recession. Malaysia is experiencing slow growth, forecast to hit only 4.5% in 2015, according to the Malaysian Finance Ministry. Growth in China is below 7% this year.
But the Turkish economy grew 3.8% in the second quarter, according to finance ministry statistics. Industrial production was up 0.3% in July, TurkStat said, and domestic demand was up 0.4% in the same month.
Lagarde pointed out in her speech that financial risk is high for many emerging markets, due to high levels of debt.
