Russia’s economy contracted by 3.2% in the first five months of the year, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said on Friday, citing a preliminary estimate.
Russia’s economy is sliding towards recession, hurt by weaker oil prices and sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, Tass reported.
Ulyukayev said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2015) that he expected the contraction in the second and third quarters of this year to be around 3.5 to 4% and that he saw a decline of around 2 percent in the fourth quarter.
“Starting from the second quarter of next year, we will approach levels of 2% GDP growth or a little higher,” Ulyukayev said.
“We’ll see the decline of roughly 2% in the fourth quarter, and by the end of the year it will be roughly minus 2.8%,” he said.
The ministry expects to see the beginning of recovery growth in the Q4. “Thus the recession will last three quarters. The recovery growth will begin in the fourth quarter,” Ulyukayev said.
At the same time, according to his estimations, Russia could reach the level of potential GDP growth rate of 2%-3% by mid-2016.
“I believe that we have a good opportunity to reach the potential level of output by the middle of 2016,” the minister said. He noted that the potential growth of Russia’s GDP is estimated at 3.2%, below the world average.
