Portugal’s fourth quarter growth is going to be weaker than expected with analysts at Montepio bank downgrading their growth estimate from a 0.5 percent to 0.4 a percent rise in GDP, according to its latest weekly report.
Montepio’s weekly economy and markets bulletin pointed to the “substantially adverse conditions” facing the retail and industrial sectors in this period and particularly stressed the impact of December where it estimates a 3.8 percent month-on-month fall in the retail sector while Portuguese industrial output decreased by 2.6 percent, The Portugal Online reported.
However, the Montepio team adds that this does still mean economic growth continues on the rise with an eventual 0.4 percent rise still building on the 0.3 percent growth in the 3rd quarter.
Furthermore, the bulletin points out that the headwinds prevailing throughout 2014, geopolitical risks in eastern Europe and the Middle East and national issues, such as the collapse of Grupo Espirito Santo, remained in effect even while action by the European Central Bank and the plunge in the oil price did suggest the 2015 growth rate of 1.5 percent was still within reach.
Portugal’s electricity consumption over recent months continues to demonstrate the underlying economic anaemia.
According to data from the national grid operator REN, January saw Portugal burn its way through 4,712 gigawatts hours (GWh) of electricity, up from 4,575 GWh for the unusually warm month of January in 2014.
