A high-ranking tourism official has voiced suspicion about the recent statistics on the amount of capital outflow through tourists' spending overseas.
Mehrdad Baouj Lahouti, a member of the tourism faction at the parliament, had recently claimed that Iranian outbound travelers take as much as $30 billion out of the country each year while the inflow of currency by foreign tourists reaches only $1 billion annually.
Mohammad Moheb-Khodaei, tourism deputy at Iran's Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization, has argued that the figures are not well-founded since ICHHTO's calculations produce other results.
"Not all of the nine million outbound travelers are leisure tourists, so one cannot overestimate the amount of capital exiting the country through this group," he told ISNA.
He pointed out that 4.5 million out of nine million travelers head for Iraq to mostly visit holy shrines, whose spending is unlikely to exceed $100 per person. Besides, Iranians living abroad, business people and students in foreign countries have been included in the population while their type of spending varies.
"The number of Iranians that travel abroad for leisure may hardly reach four million. If each of them spends an average $1,000, the total expenditure will only amount to $4 billion, not $30 billion," he said.
On the other hand, he noted, "considering five million foreigners entering the country each spending $700 on average—although the United Nations World Tourism Organization has determined the per capita spending in the region at $1,340—the total inflow of capital reaches $3.5 billion, not $1 billion."
Room for Doubt
However, in the absence of Tourism Satellite Account, the standard statistical framework for the economic measurement of tourism, both the disputed figures are based on speculation and rough calculations.
Moheb-Khodaei explained that ICHHTO is currently preparing the TSA and figures have been worked out through TSA formulas from the UNWTO's reference books.
The only source of data is the Statistical Center of Iran whose latest figures on outbound tourists pertain to spring of 2016.
In that period, around 577,000 trips were taken with a total spending of about 13 trillion rials ($310 million) based on which the Iranians' per capita expenditure in foreign countries was 23 million rials ($550).
The money covered such costs as departure tax, visa fees, city tours, transport, accommodation and food.
Moreover, the Turkish hotels union announced in its 2017 report that about 2.5 million Iranians traveled to the country in that year with an average spending of $1,000 per person which earned Turkey a total income of $2.5 billion.
This is while the parliamentary faction's data is based on the assumption that the per capita expenditure is $3,000.
Negative Attitude
The estimated numbers have shaped a negative attitude among certain experts and authorities about traveling to foreign destinations.
Valiollah Seif, governor of the Central Bank of Iran, had once said "outbound trips are above normal and should be balanced."
"Traveling abroad is a basic right of citizens. Yet, the amount of inbound and outbound tourism is not balanced and traveling overseas leads to a huge outflow of capital. By promoting Iran tours and affordable domestic travel, we can both boost our tourism and manage our capital reserves," he once tweeted.
The assumptions have also convinced officials to back the threefold increase in departure tax.
Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, head of the Management and Planning Organization, had said in response to criticisms about the tax increase that "those who travel to foreign countries should help their own country's tourism as well."
Saeed Leylaz, an economic expert, is a strong supporter of restricting foreign travel and has disapproved of the travel currency which is given to tourists at subsidized rates.
"Travel costs should become real so that people travel with their own money, not the government's subsidized currency," he said.
The dispute over the tourism figures and the consequent approaches are likely to continue until the TSA is officially introduced.
