People, Environment

Less Rain, Warmer Weather Forecast for Autumn

average rainfall will see a 10-20% decline this autumn.average rainfall will see a 10-20% decline this autumn.

The average national temperature for autumn is expected to go up by 1.5 degrees Celsius this year, while average rainfall will see a 10-20% decline, the director of National Center for Drought and Crisis Management said.

Speaking at an event in Shahr-e-Kord, Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province on Saturday, Shahrokh Fateh also blamed the problem on climate change, which has in recent years caused an increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall across the country.

“But the most serious fallout of climate change is drought,” he was quoted as saying by IRNA. “In fact, the problem is so serious that unless we start to manage it now, we’re going to suffer greatly.”

The official said humanity is incapable of combating nature.

“Instead of looking to fight off drought, we have to adapt to it. We need policies that will see us through the problem and reduce damage,” he said.

Fateh warned against the consequences of failing to manage drought, saying that it will lead to uncontrollable migration from rural areas to major cities that are already above carrying capacity (the number of people a region can support without impacting the environment).

Isa Kalantari, a former agriculture minister and an advisor to First Vice President Es’haq Jahangiri on environmental matters, has warned that Iran’s struggle with drought will eventually displace 50 million people unless swift action is taken to control the situation.

Every single one of Iran’s 31 provinces suffers from drought to some extent.

Experts, including Fateh, say the lack of sufficient rainfall in recent years, combined with high temperature and declining water reserves, has taken such a heavy toll on the country that even if precipitation returns to normal levels in the near future, it will only help meet the country’s current water demand.

In other words, normal rainfall will not be able to replenish the country’s depleting groundwater reserves.