It would be too optimistic to expect Europe to take an extraordinary measure to protect Iran against the United States' sanctions within the 60-day deadline set by Tehran, an analyst said.
The US reimposed previous sanctions and continues to enact new restrictions on Iran's trade since Washington’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal, official known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May 2018.
Other parties have failed to preserve Iran's benefits under the deal despite their pledges, compelling Tehran to take reciprocal action after exercising patience for a year.
On Wednesday, Iran declared that it will stop complying with two of its commitments under JCPOA, giving the remaining signatories 60 days to make good on promises to protect its oil and banking sectors from renewed US sanctions.
Amir Ali Abolfath, an international affairs expert, said in an interview with ISNA that taking reciprocal action to create a new balance in relations was a "measured and well-suited" move but should not be expected to make a significant difference.
"Whether the move would compel Europe to comply with all Iran's demands and start purchasing Iranian oil, or undertake banking transactions with Tehran is questionable," he said.
Ineffective Measures
Since the US pullout, the European Union has taken a number of measures to shield Iran from US sanctions, but none has been able to practically rescue the country's weakening economy.
A special purpose vehicle known as INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges) was an essential step aimed at facilitating trade with Iran through a non-dollar system. However, its registration took months and has not been activated yet.
Following Iran's declaration, the EU, along with France, Germany and Britain, released a joint statement reaffirming their complete commitment to the preservation and full implementation of JCPOA.
Although rejecting Iran's deadline, they again reaffirmed their firm commitments "including as regards sanctions-lifting for the benefit of the Iranian people".
"We are determined to continue pursuing efforts to enable the continuation of legitimate trade with Iran, including through the operationalization of the special purpose vehicle INSTEX."
They also called on countries not party to JCPOA to refrain from taking any action that could impede the remaining parties' ability to fully perform their commitments.
Abolfath, however, said EU's efforts so far appear to its maximum ability and it is too optimistic to expect a "miracle" in 60 days.
Chances of Negotiation
Nevertheless, there is a possibility that the EU, along with other parties, could manage to convince the two sides to reopen talks.
"[No miracle is likely unless] within this timeframe, the five other parties encourage Iran and the US through consultations with both sides to come to the negotiating table once again," he said.
Abolfath noted that in its Wednesday statement, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that the window for diplomacy is not closed, indicating the country's readiness for talks.
US President Donald Trump also urged Iran on Thursday to "sit down and talk" with him.
"They should call. If they do, we’re open to talk to them," he said.
Although Tehran and Washington do not see eye to eye on the conditions of negotiation, other JCPOA parties might be able to step in and broker an agreement between the two.
