The port deal signed recently between Oman and the United States is more aimed at limiting China’s influence in the Middle East, say two political analysts who believe that the new development does not signal a shift in Muscat’s policy toward Tehran.
“By signing an agreement with Oman to use ports in Duqm and Salalah, the United States aims to curb China’s presence in the Arab Middle East rather than using it for military and security purposes against Iran, or for countering the threat of the closure of Strait of Hormuz,” Sabah Zanganeh, an expert on regional affairs, told the Iranian Diplomacy website in a recent interview.
Washington clinched an agreement with Muscat late March giving the US access to facilities and ports in Duqm as well as in Salalah, Reuters reported.
American officials say the arrangement will allow the US military better access to the Persian Gulf region and reduce the need to send ships through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime choke point off Iran.
Tehran has in the past threatened to block the major oil shipping route at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, in retaliation for any hostile US action, including attempts to halt Iranian oil exports through sanctions.
China, a Rising Power
“Since the Second World War, China has been constantly increasing its military, economic and trade power in the world,” Zanganeh said, adding that Beijing’s potential plans to expand its military influence in the Middle East has become a source of concern for the White House.
“It was the Chinese who first planned to invest in the Duqm Port … which is located in one of the most geopolitically and geoeconomically significant areas in the world and can help China in the field of energy transit. That is why the United States wants to use every means to rein in China’s influence and economic ambitions,” he added.
Chinese firms once aimed to invest up to $10.7 billion in the Duqm project, a massive injection of capital into Oman, in what was expected to be a commercial, not military, arrangement.
The analyst believes that Iranian authorities should keep a close watch on all Middle East developments, particularly in its neighborhood as they could pose a potential threat to the country.
A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the deal was significant for improving access to ports that connect to a network of roads to the broader region, expanding US military options for any kind of crisis.
Zanganeh said the deal cannot be regarded as a “serious threat” against Tehran as long as it is meant for economic purposes.
“However, it can be considered an economic security threat,” he added.
The sultanate is seeking to further advance efforts to transform Duqm, once just a fishing village 550 km south of Muscat, into a key Middle East industrial and port center, as it diversifies its economy beyond oil and gas exports.
Asked about the impact of the agreement on longstanding friendly relations between Tehran and Muscat, the expert said, “So far, there is no sign that Oman wants to change its neutral policy and distance itself from the Islamic Republic of Iran, particularly because Sultan Qaboos has always sought to strengthen his country’s ties with Iran as one of the major powers in West Asia.”
China’s Strategy
Mohammad Saleh Sedqian, an expert on Middle East politics, also maintains that the port deal between the US and Oman is more directed at China than Iran.
“One of China’s strategies to confront the United States is to make inroads into the US sphere of influence in the Middle East, rather than confronting the United States near its borders,” he said.
Sedqian said the Chinese have taken measures over the past several years to forge closer ties with countries such as Kuwait, Qatar and Oman to restrain Washington that has strategic partnerships with regional Arab states such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
“Beijing’s decision to get closer to Arab countries has raised White House concerns and the Americans will make every effort to keep Chinese influence in check," he said.
China has in the past shown no qualms about rubbing up against US military facilities.
In 2017, the African nation of Djibouti, positioned at another geostrategic choke-point, the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, became home to China’s first overseas military base. The US military already had a base located just kilometers away, which has been crucial for operations against the self-styled Islamic State terrorist group, Al-Qaeda and other militant groups.
Sedqian added that the agreement cannot be interpreted as a policy change in Oman because the sultanate has always been keen on engaging with all countries, particularly with influential players such as Iran, China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the US, based on mutual respect.
