Iran should map out new strategies to maximize its benefits from the new developments unfolding in the region and thwart US attempts to put the country in a bind, a political analyst said.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has so far managed to gain the upper hand in the region, thanks to its proper assessment of regional developments and has succeeded in expanding its areas of influence,” Ahmad Hosseini, an international affairs expert, wrote in a recent article published by the Iranian Diplomacy website.
However, Hosseini argues that maintaining achievements is more difficult than gaining them in the first place, so a strategic roadmap is required to navigate the new landscape shaped by the US administration’s recent decisions on Syria and Afghanistan.
US President Donald Trump has begun what will be a total withdrawal of US troops from Syria, declaring that they have succeeded in their mission to defeat the self-styled Islamic State terrorist group and are no longer needed in the war-hit Arab state.
The US leader made the decision abruptly, against the advice of top aides and commanders, including Defense Secretary James Mattis who resigned shortly after the announcement.
According to US officials, Trump is also planning to pull out more than 5,000 troops from Afghanistan, where 14,000 US soldiers are deployed in what is America’s longest war at 17 years.
The United States went to war in Afghanistan in 2001 in the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, seeking to oust the Taliban militants harboring Saudi-raised Osama bin Laden who devised plans to carry out the attacks.
Underlying Reasons
Hosseini maintains that gaining a better understanding of the reasons behind the new US measures can help Iran plan its next moves.
“Trump wants to present himself as a decisive and determined leader who can fulfill all of his campaign promises … This can give him more room for maneuver both inside and outside his country,” he said.
The analyst says the change in regional status quo also signifies that Trump’s patience is running thin with America’s overseas military interventions, which prevent him from focusing on his priority issues such as economic growth.
“Trump, along with a team of hardline and security figures, intends to sow fear in the world and make other countries dependent on America for responding to what it perceives as threats. Such an approach can prove effective in the short run due to the US clout and will force other nations to align themselves with America,” the article read.
Hosseini added that the plan to return US ground troops home from Syria could be interpreted as a means of applying pressure on and punishing Europe, which has broken ranks with the United States on a set of issues.
“Given Europe’s proximity to Syria and the Middle East, America’s decision can create serious concerns for European countries and restrict their ability to act independently of the United States,” he said.
Next Steps
The expert says Iranian authorities should analyze recent developments and make decisions in light of the fact that exerting maximum pressure on Tehran is a major component of Trump’s foreign policy.
“Iran, like other players, is facing several scenarios all at once, which it should deal with wisely by setting priorities,” he said.
Hosseini noted that Iran should refrain from making “stereotypical judgments” about other governments to be able to gain a deeper insight into changes in the behavior of countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.
"China, Russia and Europe are keen to work with Iran and have formed a united front against US unilateralism," he said, adding that this new reality can greatly benefit Tehran if the vast potential of the country’s youth and the expertise of business and economic experts are utilized properly.
Hosseini also stated that Iranian officials should clearly explain their stance on regional and international issues to people, as it will help form a “stronger national consensus”, which is necessary to foil ill-wishers’ plots.
