It is advisable for Iran to create a communication channel with the Unites States government as part of efforts to handle the challenges arising from its hostile policies, a senior international affairs analyst said.
According to Ali Khorram, a former Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, Iran will lose more of its bargaining power the later it engages in a dialogue over the future of US restrictive measures.
“The truth is, had we entered negotiations several months ago, we could have held the whip hand at the table. But as we go forward, this leverage will wane,” he said in a recent interview with Fararu news website.
The sanctions against Iran were lifted following the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers under which Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return.
However, the measures were resumed after US President Donald Trump took office in 2017 and unilaterally pulled his country out of the deal in May.
The new sanctions not only target Tehran but also potentially any country that continues to do business with Iran or purchases its crude. The purpose is to restrict the country’s international ties and paralyze its oil-dependent economy.
Imminent Trouble
Khorram said Iran is up for serious challenges after Trump fulfills all of his pledges, although it has already been hurt.
As the Trump administration aims to reduce Iran’s oil sales to zero over six months, it has given temporary waivers to eight countries to continue buying Iranian oil in the meantime.
The reason, according to Khorram, is to prevent a sudden shock to the oil market and buy time to make up for the shortfall of Iranian crude.
“They intend to offset the loss through Saudi Arabia and Russia who, in an ingratiating manner, have agreed to compensate for the deficit of Iranian oil,” he said.
Despite exemptions, exports have already declined by more than half and will further decrease once the waivers expire.
“Based on figures, the sale of Iranian oil has already reached 1.1 million barrels per day [from 2.5 million] and once the eight exempted countries cut their purchases over the next six months, this amount will drop below 800,000 bpd,” the expert said.
Khorram noted that the restrictions will put the country in deep trouble, even with the counteractive measures to prevent the total halt of exports.
“Even if sales do not slide to zero with the solutions that Iran has learned over time, such as storing its oil at sea or in China, the 1.1 million bpd sale will cause a multitude of problems,” he said.
A main issue, he added, is the high level of corruption in the country, which depletes resources, otherwise 800,000 bpd of exports would pose no serious challenge.
External Impact
Khorram noted that the immediate impacts of sanctions are likely to come from outside the country.
“I don’t believe people will feel the true pinch of sanctions very soon … But the blow from the outside will be greater [in the short run], which could also disrupt domestic affairs,” he said.
The international affairs analyst explained that the US has placed some 700 Iranian individuals and entities on its sanctions list, apparently on a rather haphazard basis since a number of them are former officials with no position at present, but the main goal is to portray Iran as a “bankrupt” country in the eyes of the global community.
“What they [foreigners] know of sanctions is that a country with 700 designated officials [and entities] is bankrupt and it is better not to engage in any deal with it,” he said.
Khorram stressed that with the spread of such a negative view, Iran’s foreign transactions will take a hit, giving rise to domestic headaches.
