Turkey's frustration at US policies and a desire to safeguard its economic and security interests have influenced its decision to maintain trade ties with Iran despite Washington's mounting pressure, according to analysts.
Mir-Qasem Bani-Hashemi, a member of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies, maintains that the leadership in Turkey is aware of the fact that any adverse effect on the Iranian economy as a result of the sanctions will negatively impact its own economy because of the volume of bilateral trade.
It would not be easy for Turkey to find a replacement for Iranian crude and restrictions on Iran's oil exports could well jeopardize the neighboring country's "energy security", he told the economic daily newspaper Donya-e-Eqtesad in remarks published on Monday.
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Friday that his country will not cut trade ties with Tehran at the behest of other countries after the United States told countries to cut imports of Iranian oil by November.
President Donald Trump wants to cut off funds for Iran after he said in May that he is abandoning the "defective" 2015 nuclear deal agreed between Iran and six world powers.
"If the US decisions are aimed at peace and stability, then we'll support them, but we don't have to follow every decision. Being allies doesn't mean following every decision word for word," Cavusoglu told broadcaster NTV in an interview, Reuters reported.
"Iran is a good neighbor and we have economic ties. We are not going to cut off our trade ties with Iran because other countries told us to."
Turkey, a NATO ally, is dependent on imports for almost all of its energy needs. In the first four months of this year, Turkey bought 3.077 million tons of crude oil from Iran, almost 55% of its total crude supplies, Reuters reported, citing data from the Turkish energy watchdog.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last year said Turkey was looking to raise the volume of its annual trade with Iran to $30 billion from $10 billion.
Geopolitical Factors
"Regional and geopolitical issues should also be taken into consideration," Bani-Hashemi said, adding, "The fact that the United States has not supported Turkey in regard to issues related to Syria over the past five to six years…has left Ankara disappointed at American foreign policy." So Turkey will not easily accept US demands to reduce trade and economic ties with Iran unless it is offered major concessions, he explained.
Energy Needs
Qadir Golkarian, a professor at Near East University in northern Cyprus, says it would not be economically feasible for Ankara to stop importing oil from Iran. “Turkey can use alternative energy resources such as wind, solar, hydrothermal and hydropower but it has not developed the necessary infrastructure yet for such energy sources.”
Turkish officials are hopeful that a solution can be found by European powers to salvage the historic nuclear deal, he professor said.
In an article "Decoding Turkey's No to US", Donya-e-Eqtesad also quoted Iran's former ambassador to Azerbaijan Afshar Soleimani as saying that Ankara’s stance on trade with Iran is similar to that of the Europeans–that claim they cannot ask the private sector to follow governments’ lead.
Private Sector
"Problems arise when these (EU) governments are not able to pressure their private sectors to ignore US sanctions because they cannot compensate for losses the companies may incur."
Elaborating the point, he said, "Companies and banks that do not have strong links or no links with the United States can support their government's stance."
Security Cooperation
Turkey also has close cooperation with Iran in other areas, particularly on security issues, which cannot be ignored, Soleimani said, but stressed that Turkey will choose America over Iran if indeed it is forced to make a choice.
However, such a decision is not expected to affect all areas of cooperation and Ankara will seek to continue its relations with Tehran while taking US demands into consideration, he told the newspaper. The former diplomat believes that the US may grant sanctions waivers to Iran's neighbors.
Campaign Promises
Hossein Pashaei, an expert on Turkish affairs, says Turkey has decided not to follow US policies because of Erdogan's reelection campaign promises to pursue an independent foreign policy based on national interest.
Erdogan won the presidential election last month, a victory that also saw his AK Party and its nationalist allies secure a majority in parliament.
