The fate of the Iran nuclear deal will determine once and for all whether the European Union is able to act independently from the United States and maintain normal economic relations with Tehran, says a former diplomat who believes the Europeans have several options to circumvent US sanctions.
"It is indeed a big moment in EU-Iran relations because…always there has been a big question in Iran as to whether Europe is independent from the US. Whether Iran can have a separate, independent and cordial relationship with the European Union or not," Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former spokesperson of the nuclear talks, said in a BBC Hardtalk program, according to a transcript of his remarks.
President Donald Trump announced on May 8 that he will pull Washington out of the nuclear agreement and reimpose US sanctions on Tehran.
Under the accord, Iran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for relief from international sanctions.
It has made clear that it will remain faithful to the accord—to which Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia are also signatories—if powers still backing the pact can ensure it is protected from sanctions against key sectors of its economy within a 60-day deadline.
Political Will, Capacity
Asked whether the Europeans have the capacity and the will to take on the Americans on this issue and commit to continuing the economic relationship with Iran and taking whatever punishments the Americans mete out, Mousavian said, "I think the Europeans have the political will. But I really doubt whether they have the capacity. This is something we have to wait to see."
Shielding EU Firms
He maintains that there are certain mechanisms that the EU can use to limit any impact from US sanctions, including "blocking regulations", a system that would protect its firms.
The regulations were agreed in 1996 as a countermeasure to the US extraterritorial economic sanctions against Cuba, which EU governments argued benefited US foreign policy interests at the expense of European sovereignty, according to Reuters.
The blocking statute bans any EU company from complying with US sanctions and does not recognize any court rulings that enforce American penalties.
But it has never been used and is seen by European governments more as a political weapon than a regulation because its rules are vague and difficult to enforce, serving mainly as a warning to the United States.
The European Commission said in a statement it had “launched the formal process to activate the Blocking Statute by updating the list of US sanctions on Iran falling within its scope.”
Trade in Euro
Another option is euro-denominated financing set up by European countries to trade with Iran, added Mousavian, a Middle East security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University.
"If we can have business in euro, then we would face [fewer problems]," he said, noting, "Obviously, we're in a very, very complicated situation."
Some experts say the system will not be enough to sustain economic relations with Tehran and that it is not clear how much appetite there would be for euro-denominated financing tools from companies in Iran.
Israeli Provocations
On Israel's recent provocative military moves in Syria, Mousavian said they are aimed at inciting the US to attack Iran.
"I believe what [Israeli] Prime Minister [Benjamin] Netanyahu is doing is going to provoke Iran to retaliate…He is going to provoke Iranians to retaliate in order to drag the US into a war with Iran."
Israel, emboldened by Trump's decision, has in recent days carried out a barrage of unprovoked air attacks on what it claims were Iranian bases in war-torn Syria, stirring fears of a possible regional flare-up.
The expert also reiterated Iran's stance that it is assisting Syria at the request of its "legal" government in the Arab country.
