The three European signatories to the Iran nuclear agreement have 60 days to provide "guarantees" to protect Iran's interests after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 accord, a lawmaker said, quoting a senior Foreign Ministry official.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has requested that a meeting of the Joint Commission—which oversees the implementation of the international agreement — be held without the participation of US representatives and a deadline of "45 days to two months" has been set for the Europeans, ISNA reported on Sunday.
The news agency attributed the remarks to deputy foreign minister for political affairs, Abbas Araqchi as reported by Hossein Naqavi-Hosseini, spokesperson for Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.
"During this period, the EU3 (France, UK and Germany) will either be able or unable to give the necessary guarantees to safeguard Iran's interests and compensate the damages caused by the US exit," Naqavi-Hosseini said after a parliamentary meeting with Araqchi.
If they fail to provide clear assurances, senior officials will make the necessary decisions, the lawmaker added, saying that Europe is now facing a "litmus test".
US Pullout
President Donald Trump on May 8 announced a decision to pull the US out of the accord and reimpose sanctions on Tehran, further disappointing his European allies.
Iran has made it clear that it will stick to the agreement—to which Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia are also signatories—if the five powers still backing the agreement ensure it is well protected from sanctions against key sectors of its economy, namely oil and gas exports, banking, transportation, insurance…
Iran's Options
According to Naqavi-Hosseini, abandoning the landmark nuclear deal, dumping the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, known as the NPT, and drawing on the mechanisms in the Joint Commission are among possible measures that could be taken by Tehran.
Under Article 36 of the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, if a party believes that another signatory is not meeting its commitments, it can refer the issue to the Joint Commission.
If the complaining side is not satisfied with how the commission addresses its concerns, it can then take its grievance to the United Nations Security Council.
The reported ultimatum came as Iran's chief diplomat embarked on a whirlwind tour to discuss the future of the nuclear agreement.
Zarif went to Beijing on Sunday and from to Moscow before arriving in Brussels.
Silver Lining
Some experts believe there is a silver lining to Trump's dangerous decision as there is a compelling legal case to be made because the US has relinquished its right to pull the snapback trigger on Iran since it is now out of the deal.
Under the terms of a July 2015 UN Security Council resolution, participants in the agreement have the right to invoke a so-called snapback provision that would reinstate more than half a dozen UN sanctions resolutions dating back to 2006, according to the Foreign Policy journal.
Snapback Trigger
The magazine recently quoted Tess Bridgeman, the lead White House lawyer on the Iran nuclear talks from 2014 to 2015, as saying, "There is now a strong argument that we can no longer avail ourselves of snapback." So long as no one pulls the snapback trigger, the basic structure of the deal can continue, she added.
Echoing a similar view, Larry Johnson, a former UN lawyer who now teaches at Columbia Law School, said, "I don't think they can use the snapback anymore because the president has declared that the US is no longer a participant in the deal."
In order to invoke the snapback provision, you have to be a participant, he noted.
Not Going to UNSC
Shortly before Trump announced plans to withdraw from the pact, his national security advisor John Bolton suggested to reporters that Washington would not turn to the UN Security Council to remake the nuclear accord because "we're out of the deal".
"At this time, there's no plan to go up to New York" to push for a snapback of sanctions, an unnamed senior US State Department official was quoted as saying by Foreign Policy.
"The United States is out of the deal…so we're not going to use a provision as if we were still a participant in the deal to invoke the snapback."
All Alone
Dennis Ross, a former Middle East envoy under both Democratic and Republican presidents, says the Trump administration may have decided to evade the Security Council out of "a desire not to expose how alone we were".
"It would have been a very public spectacle at the Security Council meeting and us being completely alone," he added.
