Saudi Arabia's rapprochement with Iraq in the run-up to its parliamentary elections appears to take place in the context of a new policy designed to expand its sphere of influence in the oil-exporting country, says a former diplomat.
"The change of approach is not a strategic U-turn but rather is Riyadh's tactic to achieve its objectives by expanding its influence in Iraq's political arena," Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, who served as Iran's first ambassador to Baghdad after the fall of former dictator Saddam Hussein, told the Iranian Diplomacy website in an interview.
The May 12 ballot will decide Iraq's leader for the next four years, when the government will face the monumental task of rebuilding entire cities and towns after decades of wars, internal strife and the massive harm inflicted by the self-styled Islamic State terrorist group.
Warmer Ties
In the months leading to the election, Saudi Arabia has been wooing Baghdad, and there have been indications of improved relations between the two countries, which have been at loggerheads for decades, starting with the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. According to the Economist, Saudi Arabia is putting the finishing touches on a consulate in Basra, Iraq's richest city; air links between Saudi Arabia and Iraq have resumed after a 27-year halt and several state-owned Saudi businesses are registering offices in Baghdad.
In addition, at a recent conference in Kuwait, the kingdom pledged $1 billion in loans and $500 million in export credit to support Iraq's reconstruction after the war with IS, also known as Daesh. The kingdom has also promised to build Iraq a football stadium in an effort to build social bridges between the two nations.
Hidden Agenda
"After Saudi Arabia's visible failure to destabilize Iraq by supporting terrorist groups such as Daesh, Riyadh moved from confrontation to cooperation with Iraq. Now the oil kingdom is moving closer to Baghdad and some political factions in that country to wield more influence on the election," Kazemi-Qomi said.
He says another goal pursued by the House of Saud is to harm stability in some regional countries to pave the way for the United States' increased presence in the volatile Middle East, which is apparently critical for Israeli security.
Crucial Election
The former diplomat maintains that the upcoming vote is "very crucial" in light of the fact that parliament's decisions have direct impact on political, economic, social and other aspects of society.
The political and security developments in Iraq, including its fight against terrorism over the past several years and a failed Kurdish referendum on secession in 2017, have added to the significance of the elections, Kazemi-Qomi noted.
Major Difference
He opines that one major differences between Saturday's election and the previous votes is the participation of the cross-section of political groups and factions plus the strong presence of politicians affiliated to the resistance movement, namely the Popular Mobilization Forces that was a key player in degrading IS. Hadi al-Amiri, which has a leading role in the mainly Shia organization, is one of the frontrunners along with incumbent Haider al-Abadi, who has promoted a more inclusive government, and his predecessor Nuri al-Maliki.
Government Formation
Kazemi-Qomi thinks the election will fail to produce a clear winner because of the large number of electoral lists, which in turn would delay the formation of a government.
There are nearly 7,000 candidates running for 329 seats in 18 provinces using Iraq's proportional representation system, according to Reuters. Under the informal power-sharing arrangement since Saddam's ouster, the prime minister has always come from the Shia majority with a Kurdish president and a Sunni speaker.
