Nuclear Deal Can Survive US Pullout

If China, Russia, and Europe take a united stance on the Iran nuclear deal and establish new channels of communication, the agreement could survive even if the United States pulls out, says a Chinese political expert.

"As long as China, Russia, Europe, and Iran have a well-coordinated stance, the nuclear deal can survive without the US," Niu Xinchun, director at the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, wrote in an article published on the Global Times' website on Monday.

The expert argues that closer cooperation between other parties to the accord through setting up new diplomatic mechanisms and negotiation channels can prevent Washington from going too far up the wrong path and minimize the repercussions if it quits the deal, thus maintaining the essential part of the pact.

In this case, Washington's unilateral withdrawal and restoration of sanctions on Iran will not considerably influence the country, Niu wrote.

US President Donald Trump said on January 12 he would extend a waiver on nuclear sanctions against Iran for the last time to give Washington and its European allies a final chance to amend the agreement or face a US exit.

  Multilateral Meeting

"China, Russia, Europe, and Iran need to hold a formal multilateral meeting and announce that each of them will obey all the provisions of the deal irrespective of whether the US withdraws or not," Niu stated. They can bring confidence to Iran in this way, the expert said, adding that such meetings will increase the moral pressure on the US to think twice before withdrawal.

Niu believes the US may hit back when it finds itself in an "awkward" and "isolated" position after a withdrawal that will not hurt Iran.

To avoid retaliation from the US, China, Russia, and Europe should take precautions to counter American extraterritoriality, the article read.

"Since Trump took office, Washington has drifted further away from China, Europe, Russia, and Iran, but the four have come relatively close. However, in the latest development, China, Russia, and Europe didn't coordinate well enough to follow the changed scenario."

Niu maintains that the international community should deal with the Iran nuclear issue proactively instead of sitting back and waiting. 

"The US is working to draw Europe over to its side and driving a wedge between China, Russia, Europe, and Iran," the expert said, noting that it is time for China, Russia, and Europe to work together and prepare for the Iran nuclear deal in a post-American world.