Obama Stands to Lose if Talks Fail

Obama Stands to Lose if Talks Fail    Obama Stands to Lose if Talks Fail

An American foreign policy think tank has commented that if Iran and the major powers fail to strike a nuclear deal by the November 24 deadline, the Obama administration would have more to lose than the Iranians.

Cornelius Adebahr, in an article published on the website of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace entitled "What Iran Would do Without a Nuclear Deal," writes, "Washington has more to lose at home in the event that no deal is reached" as Obama's opponents might accuse him of "being naive for wasted time trying to work with Iranians," on the contrary, the Iranian government would take credit for "standing firm" against western demands.

He says there is "uncertainty" about the success of the negotiations and conclusion of a deal between Tehran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), adding, "Iran appears to be better positioned for a no-deal scenario than the West, in particular the US government."

The article touches on a series of reasons why Tehran might have the upper hand in case of the breakdown of talks.

Elsewhere, Adebahr says both Iran and the US are looking forward for a breakthrough in the talks because Tehran and Washington need such an outcome for a variety of reasons.

Tehran needs a deal to see western sanctions lifted and it could do business with the international community, he says.

In addition, he says, "Iranians believe… that they are in the stronger position… (because they) see US President Barack Obama as the one most needing a deal" in order to be able to present it as his major foreign policy achievement, given the fact that his administration already failed in the so-called Middle East peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians and the rise of the self declared Islamic State (IS) militants in Iraq and Syria.

The article concludes if a nuclear deal is not reached, Tehran is ready to try to win the world over to its side and the transatlantic allies need to carefully manage the possible fallout from failure.