Iran Oil Export to Decrease in May

Iran’s oil exports will slide in May as the United States tightens the screws on Tehran’s main source of income, industry sources said, deepening global supply losses caused by US sanctions on Venezuela and OPEC-led cuts.
The United States re-imposed sanctions on Iran in November and those sanctions have already more than halved Iranian oil exports to 1 million barrels per day, Reuters reported. 
One Iranian official familiar with oil policy said exports could drop to 700,000 bpd from May onwards. An OPEC source said Iranian exports would likely continue at about 500,000 to 700,000 bpd. 
Iran would likely be able to maintain some shipments, analyst Sara Vakhshouri, an energy consultant based in Washington, said. 
“It is important to note that zero oil sales in May does not mean that there will not be oil deliveries to China or India in the month,” she said. 
Analysts at Energy Aspects expect a drop in Iranian shipments to around 600,000 bpd from May onwards. 
Some of Iran’s oil exports are already under the radar, making it harder to assess the actual volume. 
The OPEC member exported between 1.02 million bpd and 1.30 million bpd of crude and condensate in April, Refinitiv Eikon and Kpler, a company that tracks oil flows, estimate. 

OPEC Headache 

The dearth of information is a headache for other OPEC members and allies, which meet to set oil supply policy in June. OPEC cancelled an April meeting, partly due to this uncertainty. 
Saudi Aramco, expected to be the main source of any extra oil to replace Iranian volumes, has been asking around in the market for estimates of Iranian exports, industry sources said. 
Iranian oil officials have welcomed this opacity. "Tehran insists it will keep selling oil and is examining new ways of doing so," Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has been quoted frequently as saying in recent days by local media. 
Kayrros, a company that tracks oil flows, put Iranian crude exports in March at 1.40 million to 1.65 million bpd.