Oil, LNG Trade at Stake in US-China Talks

Trade talks resuming Monday between the US and China could signal whether crude and LNG flows will pick up between the two countries this year or stay mired in the trade dispute.
The US trade representative announced Friday that top energy and agriculture officials would be part of the US delegation attending meetings in Beijing Tuesday, Platts reported.
US crude exports to China disappeared in August, with none reported through October, according to the latest US Energy Information Administration data.
Before exports dried up, the US sent an average of 377,600 bpd to China in the first seven months of 2018, according to EIA data. 
The all-time highest monthly average was June's 510,000 bpd.
The US sent 200 million cubic meters of LNG to China in October, compared with a 2018 monthly peak of 480 mcm in April and 2017 monthly peak of 680 mcm in October 2017.
China hit US LNG with a 10% tariff in September and threatened to increase it to 25% in retaliation to Trump administration tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.
Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for LNG trade group, said some US LNG exports can continue to China despite the current tariff, but a 25% tariff would all but halt the flows.
"I'm hard-pressed to see how that works," he said. "If they're going to put a 25% tariff on US LNG, then the rest of the world's LNG becomes competitive enough to make it attractive for Chinese buyers."
Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, does not expect any major breakthroughs in next week's talks. But, he said, a resumption of oil and LNG flows will be one way to gauge whether the negotiations are making progress or breaking down.