In the July 2018 update of its Short–Term Energy Outlook, the US Energy Information Administration forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $73 per barrel in the second half of 2018 and $69 per barrel in 2019.
EIA expects West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices to average $7 per barrel lower than Brent prices in the second half of 2018 and $7 per barrel lower in 2019, World Oil reported.
Its forecast of global liquid fuels balances indicates a looser oil market in the second half of 2018 and through the end of 2019 compared with the tight oil market conditions that prevailed in 2017 and the first half of 2018.
Although global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by an average of 0.5 million bpd in 2017, EIA expects inventories to be relatively unchanged in 2018 and to increase by 0.6 million bpd in 2019.
The forecast inventory builds in 2019 are mainly the result of expected liquid fuels production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada and Russia.
EIA forecasts that these countries will collectively provide 2.2 million bpd out of the 2.4 million bpd of total global supply growth in 2019.
Supply growth of this magnitude would outpace EIA’s forecast for global liquid fuels consumption growth of 1.7 million bpd for 2019.
EIA forecasts total US crude oil production to average 10.8 million bpd in 2018, up 1.4 million bpd from 2017 and 11.8 million bpd in 2019.
If realized, the forecast level for both years would surpass the previous US record of 9.6 million bpd set in 1970.
Crude oil production at these forecast levels would probably make the US the world’s leading crude oil producer in both years.
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