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No Major Changes After OPEC New Deal

OPEC and a group of non-OPEC countries agreed on Saturday that they would return to 100% compliance with previously agreed oil output cuts
 Iranian oil exports are close to 2.5 million bpd this month.
 Iranian oil exports are close to 2.5 million bpd this month.
Most customers are still buying Iran’s oil and there are many ways for the country to try to preserve output

The world will see a meager amount of extra oil reaching the market, if OPEC and its partners adhere properly to the new supply pact.

Iran’s OPEC Governor Hossein Kazempour Ardebili made the statement on Saturday in Vienna, Reuters reported.

OPEC and a group of non-OPEC countries agreed on Saturday that they would return to 100% compliance with previously agreed oil output cuts, after months of underproduction by OPEC countries, including Venezuela and Angola.

Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said this implied an indirect reallocation of extra production from countries unable to produce more oil to those, such as his own and the other Persian Gulf OPEC members that are able to do so.

But Kazempour told Reuters that no reallocation was agreed at Saturday’s joint OPEC and non-OPEC meeting or the OPEC-only talks a day earlier.

“There is no such thing,” Kazempour said. “Some people may do, but they are in breach of the agreement.”

The comments underline disagreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, longtime rivals in OPEC.

"If countries stick to their allocations, output would rise by 300,000 bpd in the first three months and up to 500,000 bpd by the end of the year," he said, which would be much lower than the 1 million bpd mentioned by Falih and some other ministers.

“This will come up naturally; some are additional barrels, some are restraint barrels, because nothing can turn up tomorrow,” Kazempour said.

According to Iran’s OPEC governor, Venezuela had said its output would partially recover in the next three to four months, another reason why other producers should not step in to compensate.

“Venezuela told us that 300,000 bpd will come back,” he said.

--- Money Transfer Problems

"Oil companies are having difficulty after US pressure for money transfer and for transport insurance," Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said on Friday in a Bloomberg television interview.

Iran said it does not believe buyers of its oil will get waivers from the US government, which could allow them to continue purchasing cargoes after US President Donald Trump’s renewal of sanctions.

“I do not believe they can receive a waiver from the United States. We are going to find some other way."

His comments came after American officials were said to have asked Japan to completely halt oil imports from Iran, going beyond the cuts demanded during previous the previous administration's sanctions. Those curbs in 2012 removed about 1 million bpd of crude from the market, suggesting Trump’s restrictions could have a big impact on the market.

“I cannot describe these other ways,” Zanganeh said. “If the United States administration knows what we are going to do, they will block us.”

When Trump decided to reimpose restrictions on Iran last month, his administration gave buyers 180 days to curb their purchases. The request to halt Japanese imports signals a tougher stance than in 2012, when nations were allowed to continue buying at reduced levels in exchange for waivers from US financial restrictions.

"Most customers are still buying Iran’s oil and there are many ways for the country to try to preserve output," Zanganeh said in Vienna after attending the OPEC meeting.

According to Zanganeh, major international oil companies Royal Dutch Shell and Total have halted purchases already.

"Iran’s Oil Ministry has prepared for a worst-case scenario,” Zanganeh said, adding that Iranian oil exports are close to 2.5 million bpd this month.

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