OPEC Output Rising in July

OPEC’s crude oil production is expected to increase by another 145,000 barrels per day in July over June, driven by higher production in Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and the UAE, a company which tracks OPEC supply forecast on Friday, indicating lower compliance with a pact to reduce production.

“OPEC-14 supply is expected to exceed 33 million bpd in July, which represents an increase of 145,000 bpd over June, driven by higher supply in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria,” said Daniel Gerber, chief executive of Geneva-based Petro-Logistics, Oil Price reported.

“July volumes represent an increase of more than 600,000 bpd over the first-half 2017 average,” the manager of the company that estimates OPEC supply by monitoring tanker shipments, said.

The expected increase in the July production would mean that compliance with the cuts within the organization has been slipping, following the almost-perfect scores that OPEC boasted at the beginning of the output cut deal, which is now extended into March next year.

Last week, OPEC said its crude oil production averaged 32.61 million bpd in June, up by 393,000 bpd over May, with output rising mostly in Libya, Nigeria, Angola, Iraq and Saudi Arabia, while production showed declines in Venezuela.

According to secondary sources, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil output rose by 51,300 bpd to 9.950 million bpd in June.

Apart from Saudi Arabia, the other notable increases in crude production last month were the two producers exempt from the cuts—Libya and Nigeria—which continue to recover production. Libya’s output jumped by 127,000 bpd to 852,000 bpd, while Nigerian crude production rose by 96,700 bpd to 1.733 million bpd.

According to the International Energy Agency, compliance among OPEC members slipped in June to its lowest level—78%—since the start of the deal. Compliance from the non-OPEC producers part of the deal, 82%, actually exceeded OPEC’s compliance rate, the IEA noted last week, adding that the market shows waning confidence in oil rebalancing.