Brent Dips on US Output Concern, OPEC Tensions

Oil prices dipped on Wednesday on renewed concerns about the efficacy of OPEC-led production cuts due to rising tensions within the export group over Qatar and growing US output.

Brent crude prices were at $49.79 per barrel, down 33 cents. Brent is about 8% below its open on May 25, when OPEC and other producers agreed to extend oil output cuts through to the first quarter of 2018. US light crude prices were at $47.89 per barrel, down 30 cents, CNBC reported.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday US crude oil production could hit a record 10 million bpd next year, up from 9.3 million bpd now, putting it nearly on a par with top exporter Saudi Arabia.

In the nearer term, with fuel production and consumption largely balanced according to the EIA, the market is focused on inventories which remain bloated.

In the United States, official inventory data from the EIA will be published on Wednesday, with expectations of a fall in stockpiles.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has pledged to cut almost 1.8 million barrels per day to help reduce global inventories to their five-year average.

“The market just has to be patient,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets, adding that a gradual reduction in inventories would support prices without the kind of price spike that would drive US shale production higher.

“We think inventories are going to be close to normal by the end of the year,” he added.

But analysts saw a risk that rivalries between OPEC members could weaken the production cut agreement. Some Arab states, inducing OPEC members Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, cut diplomatic and transport ties with Qatar, a small producer.

The spat adds to other lingering doubts about whether the agreement will be enough to support prices.

But Qatar’s isolation had caused some disruptions in oil and other trade that offered some short-term support for oil prices, analysts said.

“Port restrictions on Qatari flagged vessels are going to cause loading disruptions,” said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA, adding this could “put a floor on crude in the short-term rather than starting a panic rally.”