Total investment in Canadian oil sands projects during 2014-38 will exceed $514 billion, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI).
The total applies to investment in new projects and sustaining investments in existing projects. The sum of initial capital for new projects, sustaining capital for existing projects, and operating and maintenance expenses for all projects will average $55 billion/year, CERI projected.
The group pointed out that an indicated decline in projected annual investment beginning in 2018 reflected its counting as new projects only those announced as of August 2014.
The analysis, reported by Oil & Gas Journal, assumed forecast production of raw bitumen and bitumen upgraded into synthetic crude oil in Alberta of 3.7 million b/d in 2020 and 5.2 million b/d by 2030. Production from the oil sands in 2013 was 1.98 million b/d. CERI estimated gross domestic product impacts in Canada from all oil sands investment, reinvestment, and operating revenues during 2014-38 of $3.865 trillion.
It estimated total Canadian employment directly and indirectly related to and induced by construction of new oil sands projects and operation of new and existing projects will increase from the current 514,000 jobs to a peak of 802,000 jobs in 2028.
In Alberta, employment directly related to on-site construction, ongoing and turn-around maintenance, off-site prefabrication and modular construction, steam-assisted gravity drainage well development, and cold-bitumen well development will rise from 146,000 jobs in 2014 to a peak of 256,000 jobs in 2024.
Taxes related to the oil sands and directed to the Canadian federal government during 2014-38 will total $574 billion. In Alberta, nonroyalty taxes related to the oil sands will total $302 billion, and annual oil sands royalties will grow from $4.4 billion in 2013 to $18.2 billion by 2023. Cumulative royalties received by the Alberta government will exceed $600 billion during the next 25 years..
