Iran will increase its oil exports by up to 60% within a year if it can agree a nuclear deal with world powers bringing an end to sanctions, a Reuters survey of analysts said on Wednesday.
A poll of 25 oil analysts from leading banks and brokerages forecast Iran would be able to raise crude oil output by between 250,000 and 500,000 barrels per day by the end of this year and boost sales abroad by up to 750,000 bpd by mid-2016.
That would push Iran's total crude oil output to around 3.6 million bpd, its highest for four years, and would inflate Iranian exports by around 60% at a time when world markets are already oversupplied.
But the Reuters survey said it would take little time for Tehran to raise output as nuclear inspectors verify Iran's compliance with the terms of any deal and sanctions are removed.
"It will take a few months before Iran can start to export at full blast," said Swiss energy markets analyst Olivier Jakob.
Negotiators from Tehran are locked in talks in Vienna with officials from the United States and five other major powers to agree a deal over Iran's peaceful nuclear program. The deadline for the talks has been extended until July 7 to allow more time for a deal that both sides have said is close.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh has said Iran could supply all its stored oil to markets quickly after sanctions. But years of underinvestment mean it may struggle to get its oil industry reach full potential in the near future, analysts say.
Two analysts surveyed, Michael Wittner at Societe Generale in New York and Bjarne Schieldrop at SEB Markets in Oslo, said they expected no initial increase in Iranian output.
At the other end of the scale, Mads Hemmingsen at Global Risk Management said Iranian production would surge quickly.
A year after any nuclear deal, much bigger increases in Iranian supply are expected with nine analysts forecasting a rise of up to 750,000 bpd and another seven seeing a rise of between 750,000 and 1 million bpd. Iran pumped around 2.82 million bpd in June, according to a Reuters survey.
