Electricity demand is forecast to reach 74,000 megawatts in Iran over the next few days, an unprecedented record in the annals of the country’s power industry.
Mostafa Rajabi-Mashhadi, the head of Iran Grid Management Company, an Energy Ministry subsidiary, noted that the highest recorded figure so far was registered last week when the nationwide demand peaked at 69,900 MW, Barq News website reported.
The mercury in Tehran and other areas with moderate climate, which is currently hovering around 38°C, will exceed 42°C on Monday. Hence the power use is also projected to experience a substantial rise, he added.
Rajabi-Mashhadi said a rise in temperature by 1 degree Celsius raises electricity demand by approximately 1 gigawatt.
Although the current installed power capacity is over 90 GW, a lot less is produced in the hot seasons due to wastage, technical problems and restrictions, as power plants are usually are not operating at full capacity.
Iran Power Generation, Distribution and Transmission Company’s [Tavanir] maximum output capacity is currently 70 GW and as soon as demand exceeds the level, nationwide load shedding and power outages will start.
“The Energy Ministry has not yet announced a daily timetable for shutdowns in the metropolis, but if consumers do not readjust their [high] consumption, shortages will have to be compensated by load shedding that will adversely affect industries and households.”
Power customers are likely to experience load shedding when a utility lowers or stops electricity distribution across the coverage area for a short period; this type of load shedding is commonly referred to as a rolling blackout,” he said.
Tavanir has routinely warned homes and offices to rethink their unacceptably high consumption.
Blackouts
Failing to conserve electricity will trigger blackouts in many regions.
“Over 25,000 megawatts have been added to installed power capacity since 2019, which apparently is not enough to make up for the ever-increasing consumption in summer,” the official said.
Many of the hydroelectric power stations across the country are not operating this year due to poor rainfall and low water levels in dams.
However, if they all work, the maximum electricity that can be generated by various types of power plants in the country is about 60,000 MW, he added.
Iran has experienced electricity supply and demand imbalances over the past three years mainly because of a surge in energy-intensive cryptocurrency mining and a heavier use of natural gas in manufacturing and household sectors, which has caused power plants to operate at lower capacity.
Rajabi-Mashhadi said the nationwide project to overhaul thermal power plants to improve their output, which started last September, was completed in June and all 132 stations are fully operational.
About 583 gas and steam units in 132 power plants are operating at full capacity to help ensure sustainable supply during the peak demand period.
An estimated 100 million megawatt-hours of power have been generated in thermal power stations since March.
“Offices were obliged to start at 6 a.m. as of June so that Tavanir could meet power demand during peak hours that start at 2 p.m.,” he said.
State organizations’ power consumption is constantly monitored remotely and their electricity supply will be cut off, if they do not comply with Tavanir’s regulations.
Water Consumption
Water consumption in Tehran has reached 55,000 liters per second since the beginning of July, up 7% compared with the same period of a year ago when it stood at 52,000 liters per second.
According to data from Tehran Regional Water Company and the Energy Ministry, the upswing is alarming as the level of water in dams in the sprawling province is depleting.
“Dams supplying water to Tehran, namely Taleqan, Latyan, Mamlou, Karaj and Lar, now hold a total of 592 million cubic meters of water, which is 7% less than in the same period of last year,” the report added.
The five dams together can hold 2 billion cubic meters of water, but now they are only 25% full.
Tehran has received 194 millimeters of rainfall since Sept. 23, 2022, (the beginning of the current water year), indicating a 30% decline over a 50-year period.
According to Rajabi-Mashhadi, 30% of potable water demand in the province can be met through dams and the rest must be extracted from underground resources, which are already in bad conditions.
As per global standards, a four-member family's average water use is 15 cubic meters per month in the world, whereas it is 30 cubic meters in Tehran for almost 40% of households.
