Natural gas supply shortfall in Iran is expected to surpass 400 million cubic meters per day by 2030, a professor at the Sharif University of Technology said.
“Daily gas shortfall is currently 240 mcm that will reach 400 mcm in less than eight years, in which case electricity generation will be adversely affected,” ILNA also quoted Seyyed Hashem Oraee as saying.
The National Iranian Gas Company is able to produce a maximum of 1 billion cubic meters of gas per day, of which 33% are burnt in thermal power stations to meet 90% of Iran’s total power demand, he added, noting that the more gas shortfall NIGC faces, the less electricity will be produced.
Oraee, who also heads the Renewable Energy Union, noted that gas delivery to power stations has experienced a 2.5% fall over the last seven months compared to a year ago.
“Such a shortfall has to be compensated by power plants with more liquefied fuels like diesel, as a result of which there won’t be enough fuel for road transportation,” he said.
Referring to a report released by the Majlis Energy Commission last week, he noted that gas output from the giant South Pars Gas Field in the Persian Gulf is decreasing by 28 mcm per day and to stop the ongoing reduction, NIGC needs to spend at least $20 billion on development projects over the next five years, that is definitely a very far cry for the state firm.
“Although energy consumption intensity has reduced by 24% all over the world in the past two decades, it has risen by 42% in Iran, just because policymakers do not care about energy efficiency plans,” he said.
In 2013, academics had warned both parliamentarians and the Energy Ministry about the massive gas and power deficit, and they were provided with pragmatic solutions, but they all turned a deaf ear to the warnings.
“We should accept that resolving energy-related issues need long-term plans and there is no quick fix for them.”
Promoting Awareness
The university professor believes that promoting people’s awareness about the value of energy will certainly pay off.
“In addition, NIGC must take advantage of advanced technology to increase its output from SP that is shared with the tiny Arab neighbor, Qatar,” he added.
Drawing a parallel between Iran and Qatar’s production, he noted that the latter is extracting 90% more than the former because the latter has access to cutting-edge technologies.
Iran is the only country in the world where 20% of the annual GDP ($100 billion) are spent on energy subsidies. The world's total direct energy subsidies, including for fossil fuel, are estimated at $400 billion.
Oraee said supplying natural gas to low efficiency power plants (20%) is a clear indication that energy is neither valued nor conserved in Iran.
“Gas should be converted to added-value goods in the key petrochemical sector instead of being wasted in Rey, Besat and Tarasht power plants that should have been decommissioned 20 years ago,” he added.
Of the five power stations in Tehran, three have efficiency levels under 25% for more than two decades and this means 75% of the gas feedstock turns into heat and toxic emissions.
“Even if the power plants have higher efficiency, the electricity they produce is wasted in homes for heating purposes without contributing to the GDP,” he said.
Oraee pointed out that shifting to renewables is fast becoming a norm in most countries (including oil-rich states) as they confront massive ecological problems, namely global warming from fossil fuels.
However, in Iran, the authorities still insist on building more thermal power plants and raising their efficiency from 20-30% with no initiative for expanding green power.
