Iran entered a period of dry spells 20 years ago and the long-term drought is expected to last at least for 10 more years, the head of Geological Survey and Mineral Exploration said.
“Under such critical conditions, pinning hope on short-lived wet years is nothing but wishful thinking,” Alireza Shahidi was also quoted as saying by IRNA.
Large volumes of underground water that were supposed to be consumed over the next century have already been used in the last four decades and the long-term effects of drought has already taken a heavy toll on water resources, he added.
Shahidi noted that water deficit from underground sources has risen to 140 billion cubic meters from 20 bcm in 2001, which indicate that Iran is getting drier.
Surveys showed extended dry periods interrupted by intermittent heavy rainfalls over the next decade have increased the threat of floods. Without thoughtful adaptability measures, some parts of the country may face limited habitability in the future.
Increased groundwater pumping to meet water demand during drought has led to aquifer depletion. This has also resulted in land subsidence, permanent loss of storage for groundwater and infrastructure damage.
“Water allocations for ecosystems and various restoration projects has reduced or stopped altogether due to the severe drought,” he said.
According to Mohammad Darvish, an environmentalist and the head of the Environment Committee for Social Health Department of UNESCO, water levels in underground tables have dwindled by at least 100 millimeters in the past 50 years.
To compensate the steep decline, average annual rainfall should be at least 400 millimeters. In the last two years, precipitation was less than 250 millimeters.
Declining Precipitation
As precipitation has declined since 2018, people are keen to know whether the pressing water problems can be resolved. The answer is obvious.
“Instead, the people should be asking whether we are managing our water resources in a sustainable manner and for the long haul. The answer is a big ‘NO’,” Darvish said.
It seems the worsening water shortages have still not sent the urgent message to high and wasteful consumers that the current trend is unsustainable.
Iranians and water managers need to face the stark reality soon that the problem must be fixed before the wells run dry. In fact, the world is fast getting closer to an extended water crisis. Experts and conservationists in Tehran have regularly warned that Iran is already in the highly critical bracket because of unacceptably high consumption and waste.
Social unrest related to climate change and shortages of water/electricity are reported with higher frequency in many parts of the globe. Iran is not immune.
Iran is located in an arid and semi-arid region. With less than 230 millimeters of rainfall per year, it is among countries with low precipitation. The average global rainfall is about 1,000 mm per annum.
The prolonged dry spell — exacerbated by climate change — has taken a toll on Iran’s groundwater levels to the extent that even if precipitation returns to normal, it may possibly meet actual water demand and not help restore underground reserves.
“In other words, normal rainfall cannot and will not replenish the depleting groundwater reserves,” Darvish warned.
“Watershed management and techniques such as flood dispersal, efficient aquifer management and revival of natural resources can help improve groundwater resources, but these cannot work miracles.”
