With the onset of summer and rising power consumption rise in the capital, sporadic power cuts have started in Tehran, Alborz and Qom provinces, the spokesman for the Iran Power Generation, Distribution and Transmission Company (Tavanir) said, expressing concern over possible blackouts.
"Electricity consumption nationwide jumped to 52,000 MW on Tuesday at 2 pm, up 8,000 MW compared to the same day and time in 2020," Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi was quoted as saying by ISNA.
Of the total consumption on Tuesday, 17 MW was consumed in Tehran, Alborz and Qom. Tehran Regional Electricity Company is responsible for supplying power to the three provinces.
Peak consumption declined 1 GW in 2018 when maximum power load was 56,000 MW, but a year later peak demand rose by 1.5 GW and network load hit a new high of 57,500 MW. Last year’s peak demand was logged at 58 GW.
“If peak demand exceeds 60 GW power cuts will be inevitable,” the top utility company warned.
The number of electricity meters in Iran (37 million) increases by 1 million per year. As and when average temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius, power consumption jumps by almost 1,500 MW.
The mercury in Tehran, a city that has a relatively moderate climate compared to the southern regions, was near 35 degrees Celsius on Tuesday.
Needless to say, there is a direct link between the rise in temperature and peak demand. When the temperature reaches 36, 37, 38, 39 and 40 degrees Celsius, network load approaches 52.5 GW, 54 GW, 55.5 GW, 57 GW and 59.5 GW, respectively.
“The Energy Ministry has not yet announced a daily timetable for shutdowns in the metropolis, but if consumers do not readjust their [high] consumption, the shortages will have to be compensated by load shedding, affecting industries and households.”
Power customers are likely to experience load shedding when a utility lowers or stops electricity distribution across the coverage area for a short period; this type of load shedding is commonly referred to as a rolling blackout.
Tavanir has routinely warned homes and offices to rethink their unacceptably high consumption. Failing to conserve electricity means blackouts in many regions.
“Over 5,000 megawatts has been added to installed power capacity since 2019. This apparently is not enough to make up for the ever-increasing consumption in summer.”
Working hours may change like previous years during the hot season to avoid potential power outages.
Changing work hours helped with load management in the provincial capitals, big cities and towns last year reducing consumption by as much as 500 megawatts last summer.
The ministry’s projections show output from hydropower plants will not exceed 3,000 megawatts this summer due to low precipitation. Production from these plants was 8,000 MW last summer.
