The idea of a pipeline stretching from Iran's gas-rich southern regions to Pakistan was an imprudent decision from the outset as most gas-based industries in Pakistan are located in the east of that country not the west.
According to ILNA, and based on the views of energy experts, namely Morteza Behrouzifar, Iran gas pipeline was supposed to transfer the clean fuel from west of Pakistan to the east and pass through regions mostly controlled by Salafist groups and Sunni Muslims that have problems with Iran.
Historically, Iran has not been able to export sizeable volumes of gas due to the alarming rise in domestic demand and the US economic siege. However, modest production growth will continue even under the sanctions due to Iran’s large domestic market and natural gas export to Iraq and Turkey.
Iran’s geography and energy reserves make it attractive for the Europeans looking for a long-term solution to boost their energy security.
“Pakistan has no political influence in the region and has other options to meet its energy needs. So it can never be a good option for Iran compared to the energy markets in Europe, which of course has its own challenges,” Behrouzifar said without elaboration.
The concept of building a gas pipeline from South Pars Gas Field in the Persian Gulf to Pakistan all the way to India goes back to the 1950s. But the first real step was taken when the three sides signed a preliminary agreement in 1999.
The project has faced multiple financial and political hurdles that have not been resolved after two decades. In 2009, India withdrew from the project over pricing and security issues.
The Iran-Pakistan pipeline project - also called Peace Pipeline - is a 1,957 kilometer pipeline that will deliver natural gas from Iran’s South Pars fields to Pakistan's two major cities -- Karachi and Multan.
Tehran has fulfilled its commitment regarding construction of the gas pipeline inside Iranian territory (1,172km pipeline from Asalouyeh to the joint border) and is waiting for Islamabad to do its share and complete the 785km on its territory.
If and when the project is complete, Iran will initially transfer 30 million cubic meters of gas per day and eventually increase supplies to 60mcm per day.
“Despite Iranian energy officials’ persistence, exporting gas to India via Pakistan is wishful thinking as the two states’ animosity has deep historic roots. New Delhi will never let its neighbor control its energy security.”
Moreover, Russian energy firms have invested heavily in Pakistan LNG and gas projects and Iran’s emergence in such a lucrative market will endanger Russia’s long-term plans, he
Trusted Allies
Behrouzifar believes unlike public opinion, Russia and Iran will likely never be trusted allies across multiple sectors, especially energy. “When it comes to the key energy sector they are like arch rivals not partners.”
Russia sees Iran as a provisional tool to counter the United States and safeguard its economic interests not only in the region but far beyond,” the expert was quoted as saying.
Russia seeks to be an equal and proactive participant on the global scale ensuring its own energy interests are adequately represented among relevant stakeholders and competitors. Russian petrodollars help strengthen its sovereignty and underpin its comparative advantage in the key energy sector.
“Introducing Iranian natural gas to the European market without Russia’s direct support can help reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas.”
Russia seeks to maintain control of the European market not only to promote its economic growth but for geopolitical leverage.
Russia’s energy objectives with regard to the European market is aimed at securing long-term demand from major markets and foster strategic ties with influential players such as Germany, France, and Italy
Furthermore, it can safeguard against potential competitors like Iran and maximize profit by expanding access to big consumers. Moscow’s gas expansion efforts through the NordStream 2 and TurkStream pipelines have allowed it to block or, at least, impede European diversification.
The bottom line is that cooperation between Russia and Iran in both the geopolitical and energy realms is a double-edged sword for Tehran, Behrouzifar said. “Iran needs Russia, but knows that Moscow will only be as helpful as it needs to be.”
