Global Oil Demand Rebound to Accelerate in Second Half 2021

Global oil demand will rise in 2021, but not enough to surpass 2019 levels as the coronavirus pandemic continues to weigh on transportation fuel demand, especially jet fuel, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
"Oil demand will rebound by more than 6 million barrels per day in 2021, but consumption is still expected to be more than 2 million bpd below that of 2019's 101.9 million bpd. Why? The global middle class - the real engine of oil demand - faces continued pressures from wealth inequality and the ongoing COVID-19 cloud," said Chris Midgley, Global Head of S&P Global Platts Analytics.
The outlook presumes a recovery in global gross domestic product, highlighted by an acceleration of growth in the second half of 2021.
The rollout of effective coronavirus vaccines has "created a wave of optimism across commodity markets despite the fundamentals being unchanged," said Midgley.
"While in the long-term we are more optimistic about a rebound of oil demand, causing us to upwardly revise our 2021 demand outlook, in the short term, we expect things to worsen, with increased second-wave lockdowns in US and Europe resulting in much weaker gasoline demand across the holiday season," Midgley added.
Due to the sharp reduction in air travel, kerosene/jet fuel demand represented more than a third of the overall demand decline in 2020, about 3.1 million bpd out of total demand loss of 8.7 million bpd.