UAE Minister: Slowing US Shale Growth, Easing Trade Tensions to Boost Oil Market

US shale production will be flat or even decline by 2021, and global oil demand is healthier this year than it was in 2019, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said Saturday.
"My expectation is that 2020 will be very good," he told reporters on the sidelines of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi, S&P Global Platts reported.
The UAE and its OPEC+ counterparts on January 1 began a three-month 1.7 million barrels per day production cut accord aimed at warding off a potential supply glut. 
Mazrouei said he was confident that the deal would maintain a balanced market in the first quarter and that current market conditions were "OK" but refused to comment on the future of the agreement.
Compliance with production quotas, including by Iraq and Nigeria, which have consistently overproduced their caps, improved in December, the minister added.
Earlier at the forum, he said he was not worried that Russia's commitment to the deal was waning, despite comments by Russian energy minister Alexander Novak that he may seek his country's exit from the cuts or at least an easing of the quotas.
If Russia was not committed to cooperating on long-term market management with OPEC, it would not have signed on to the OPEC+ charter, Mazrouei said.
On the market fundamentals, he said a ratcheting down of trade tensions between the US and China should help boost global economic growth and oil demand. US President Donald Trump has said a "phase one" trade deal with China that lowers some tariffs could be signed later their month.
As for supply, he said US shale producers were facing financial challenges that will cool off the rapid growth they have experienced in the past few years.